In a new Gallup poll, President Joe Biden concludes 2023 with a lower approval rating than any of his seven predecessors at a similar point in their first term. As the oldest-over president, Biden will enter 2024 with just 39% of Americans approving of his job performance, indicating a slight increase from his October and November ratings of 37%. Nonetheless, these numbers still fall below the ratings of every chief executive at the end of their third year in office since Jimmy Carter.

The highest near-midterm approval rating was enjoyed by former President George W. Bush, who had 58% of Americans approving of his job performance in December 2003, following the capture of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Carter and Ronald Reagan each had 54% approval ratings in December 1979 and 1983, respectively. However, only Reagan secured re-election the following year as Carter's administration struggled with economic challenges and the Iran hostage crisis.

George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton both recorded 51% approval ratings in the Gallup surveys for December 1991 and 1995, respectively. Yet, only Clinton was able to secure a second term. More recently, former Presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama had job approval ratings below 50% entering their re-election years, with Trump at 45% in December 2019 and Obama at 43% in December 2011.

The decline in Biden's approval ratings can be attributed to the majority of US adults (four in five) rating the nation's economy as fair or poor. A mere 3% believed economic conditions were excellent, while 19% considered them good. Moreover, 68% of Americans expressed the belief that the economy was getting worse, as opposed to only 28% who believed it was improving. These findings lend credibility to the notion that voters are rejecting "Bidenomics," the president's financial policy.

One significant factor contributing to public frustration is the persistent inflation that continues to outpace wages. Although the White House argued that prices were decreasing across the board compared to the previous year, Republicans have emphasized this inflationary trend as the source of voters' discontent.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index, which measures Americans' economic confidence, is currently at -32. While this represents an improvement from the lowest point of Biden's presidency in June 2022, when the index hit -58, it still reflects a negative sentiment regarding the economy. The index ranges from +100 for excellent and good economic ratings to -100 for fair and poor ratings.

The poll highlights that 26% of US adults consider the state of the economy or inflation as the most significant problem facing the country. Another 16% mentioned poor leadership as the biggest issue, while an equal percentage cited immigration as the most daunting problem.

Party affiliation plays a significant role in the approval ratings. Approximately 78% of Democrats approve of Biden's leadership, which is three percentage points above the lowest rating recorded for members of the president's party in October. However, only 34% of independents and a mere 5% of Republicans approve of Biden's performance.

Biden's approval rating among Republicans has remained in the single digits since the administration's turbulent withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Among independents, Biden hit a record-low approval rating of 27% in November before slightly rebounding this month.

While former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican candidate for the 2024 general election, has a favorability rating of 39.9% according to the RealClearPolitics average, other polls indicate that US voters prefer his handling of the economy, foreign conflicts, and immigration.

As President Biden ushers in the new year, these numbers suggest a challenging road ahead for his administration. The president will need to address concerns over the economy and inflation while working towards regaining the trust of a significant portion of the American electorate.