Oil Prices Drop as OPEC+ Delays Meeting, Raising Uncertainty on Output Cuts
ICARO Media Group
Oil prices experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures falling as much as 5% following the announcement that OPEC+ would be postponing its upcoming meeting. The consortium, led by Saudi Arabia, cited the need for consensus before discussing additional output cuts, sparking concerns about the group's plans. Despite a partial recovery, WTI closed the session down nearly 1% at $77.10 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, concluded the session fractionally lower at $81.96.
The delay in the OPEC+ meeting, originally scheduled for November 26 but now pushed back to November 30, has raised uncertainties regarding the group's intentions. Analysts suggest that the postponement indicates difficulties in convincing all members to agree on further cuts. Stewart Glickman, an energy equity analyst at CFRA Research, explained, "I think this means they are having a hard time getting everyone to buy in to the notion of more cuts across the board."
Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia, which has independently reduced its production by one million barrels per day until year-end, is pressuring smaller OPEC+ members to take on a larger share of the cuts. The dissent among members can be attributed to some nations wanting to regain their market share by reducing their commitment to output cuts.
Market observers point out that OPEC+ uncertainties arise from concerns about global supply restrictions and maintaining stable oil prices. This year's cuts aimed to limit global supply to support oil prices, which have fallen around 20% from the average 2022 price. Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital, expects a potential deeper reduction in cuts, suggesting that Saudi Arabia may seek additional contributions from other members to balance the burden.
Uncertainty within OPEC+ further heightened as a bearish oil market outlook was shared with the group this week, contributing to the skepticism among members. Recent materials reviewed by Reuters highlighted the downbeat sentiment presented by oil producers and airlines, prompting a sell-off in November. Ed Hirs, a senior fellow at the University of Houston, expressed concerns, stressing, "Raising the price in the face of softening demand could knock down demand further, resulting in lower prices regardless."
The continuous decline in crude oil prices, which have dropped by approximately 18% from the 2023 highs reached in September, is driven by fears of slowing demand and increasing supply. In response to the volatile market, the Biden administration has engaged in close communication with oil producers globally, acknowledging their concerns while emphasizing that high oil prices are detrimental to American and global consumers as well as economic growth.
As uncertainty looms over OPEC+'s decision on output cuts, the market remains skeptical that deeper cuts will be implemented. Wednesday's price reaction signals doubts regarding the group's ability to materialize a significant reduction in production in 2024.
Ines Ferre, a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance, contributed to this report.