New Research Suggests the Need for a Category 6 for Hurricanes
ICARO Media Group
In a groundbreaking paper published by leading hurricane researchers, it is argued that the existing five-category scale used to rate hurricanes may no longer be sufficient as climate change continues to intensify these powerful storms. The proposed addition of a sixth category comes as storms with unprecedented wind speeds become increasingly common.
The current scale, known as the Saffir-Simpson scale, was introduced in the 1970s and has been widely used by forecasters worldwide, including the National Hurricane Center in Florida. Under this scale, storms with maximum wind speeds exceeding 157 miles per hour are classified as Category 5 hurricanes. However, recent research has shown that climate change is driving an upsurge in these extreme storms, necessitating the consideration of a new category.
The authors of the study, James Kossin of the First Street Foundation and Michael Wehner of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, are renowned experts in the field and have been investigating the effects of climate change on hurricanes for many years. They propose expanding Category 5 to include hurricanes with maximum sustained winds ranging from 157 to 192 miles per hour, and introducing Category 6 for any storm surpassing 192 miles per hour.
While Category 6 hurricanes would currently be extremely rare, recent storms such as Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, which devastated the Philippines with wind speeds around 195 miles per hour, highlight the urgency of considering a higher classification. Other storms that would potentially fall under Category 6 include Hurricane Patricia in 2015, which struck Mexico, and three typhoons near the Philippines in 2016, 2020, and 2021.
It's important to note that not all powerful storms would meet the criteria for Category 6. Hurricane Irma, for example, had sustained winds of approximately 185 miles per hour when it struck the U.S. Virgin Islands in 2018 as a Category 5 storm. While some residents argued that Irma should have been classified as a Category 6 due to the extent of the wind damage, it would still be classified as a Category 5 under the proposed scale.
However, it's crucial to recognize that the proposed scale would not fully capture the particular dangers posed by storms like Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Florence, or Hurricane Ida. While these storms align with the current wind speed criteria, their distinctive threat lies in the destructive flooding caused by extreme rainfall. Studies have revealed that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water, leading to increased rainfall during hurricanes and other storms.
The National Hurricane Center, responsible for official category designations for hurricanes in the United States and its territories, has not yet addressed the possibility of incorporating a Category 6. Nevertheless, they have implemented various updates to their forecasting methods, including improved storm surge predictions and enhanced forecasting capabilities concerning storm intensity and location. These measures are aimed at providing people with more time to prepare and evacuate in the face of impending hurricanes.
As climate change continues to reshape our environment, the discussion surrounding the need for a Category 6 designation for hurricanes gains momentum. Experts argue that such a category would better convey the increasing risks associated with these powerful storms, ultimately aiding in more accurate forecasting, timely warnings, and effective disaster management strategies.