New Battleground State Poll Highlights Warning Signs for Biden's Re-Election Prospects

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
05/11/2023 22h25

The latest battleground state poll released by The New York Times and Siena College has revealed alarming warning signs for President Joe Biden's chances of re-election in 2024. According to the poll, conducted one year ahead of the election, Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in four out of the six key battleground states.

In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, Trump maintains a lead over Biden among likely voters. The former president is tied with Biden in Michigan and trails him only in Wisconsin. It is worth noting that Trump lost all six of these states in the 2020 election. However, his current leads over Biden in the polls are significant, with each exceeding 5 percentage points.

These poll results are not isolated, as a CBS News/YouGov national poll also released on the same day shows Trump leading Biden 51 percent to 48 percent. This is a reversal of Biden's 51 percent to 47 percent victory in the 2020 election and has caused concern among prominent Democrats.

Beyond the headline numbers, the poll reveals specific areas of weakness for Biden. One significant concern is the perception of age. A considerable majority of surveyed likely voters in the battleground states, 70 percent, believe that Biden "is just too old to be an effective president." In comparison, only 39 percent hold the same view of Trump. This sentiment is reinforced by the perception of mental sharpness, where Biden lags behind Trump with only 36 percent of likely voters believing he possesses the necessary attributes.

The poll captures dissatisfaction with the current state of the country, with only 23 percent of respondents in the battleground states believing that the country is headed in the right direction. Even among Biden supporters, opinions are evenly split between those who believe the country is on the right track and those who believe it is not.

Furthermore, the poll highlights concerns over the impact of Biden's policies. A majority of voters, 53 percent, feel that Biden's policies have personally harmed them, while only 36 percent believe they have been helped. This stands in stark contrast to Trump, with 51 percent of voters stating that they were personally helped by his policies.

Biden's support among young voters, a crucial demographic, seems to be weakening. Although he still leads Trump in this age group with 50 percent to 44 percent, it falls short of his performance in the 2020 election. Young voters are also more likely to express doubts about Biden's age, making them more open to voting for another Democratic candidate if given the opportunity.

Another concerning trend for Biden is the loss of support among Hispanic or Latino voters. While he maintains a lead among this group, it is smaller compared to his performance in the 2020 election. This is particularly significant considering that Arizona and Nevada, states with larger Latino populations, are included in the polling.

Economic issues continue to dominate voter priorities, with 55 percent of respondents choosing it over societal issues such as abortion, guns, or democracy. However, the poll shows that 50 percent of swing-state voters rate the economy as "poor," posing a challenge for Biden as he seeks to improve his standing. Additionally, the issue of abortion is not helping him gain traction, as a significant portion of Trump voters, 40 percent, believe that abortion should be mostly or always legal.

As the 2024 election approaches, these warning signs raise concerns for Biden's re-election prospects. With doubts about his age and mental sharpness, dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, mixed views on the impact of his policies, and challenges among key demographics, Biden will need to address these issues to secure a second term in the White House.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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