In a major blow to the Republican Party, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's announcement that he will be leaving Congress at the end of the year has left his colleagues worried about the potential fallout in campaign support and the loss of granular institutional knowledge. McCarthy's absence could leave Republicans at a disadvantage heading into next fall's elections, especially in the fight for control of the closely divided House, which is likely to be decided in his home state of California.

California is crucial to Republicans' efforts to maintain their historically narrow majority in the House, with five out of the state's 12 Republican representatives holding districts that President Biden won in 2020. These representatives include Young Kim of Anaheim Hills, David Valadao of Hanford, Mike Garcia of Santa Clarita, Michelle Steel of Seal Beach, and John Duarte of Modesto. Additionally, Rep. Ken Calvert of Corona faces a competitive race.

McCarthy's departure means that the GOP will be without a seasoned politician who excelled in campaign efforts and was one of the most prolific fundraisers in party history. His ability to recruit candidates, raise money, and build relationships with swing-district lawmakers was key to his rise to the speakership. His replacement, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), a neophyte in political leadership, may face challenges in leading the party's campaign efforts, especially given his hard-line social conservative stances that may not resonate well in districts crucial for House control.

The loss of McCarthy's political capability will be keenly felt. Throughout his tenure, his leadership PAC spent over 10 times more on private jets, restaurants, and lodging than other congressional leaders did. He played a vital role in building the House GOP's super PAC efforts, had deep connections with megadonors and lobbyists, and his knowledge of California politics was particularly invaluable. Johnson, on the other hand, has limited experience in fundraising, having raised just over $5 million during his six-plus years in Congress.

While Johnson is trying his best to introduce himself to key donors and is receiving help from McCarthy's circle, there is acknowledgment among Republican lawmakers and campaign aides that he starts at a disadvantage. The fear is that there will be less campaign funding available for the party, which could impact their election strategies. However, House GOP strategists maintain that they are not changing their plans to heavily spend in states like California and New York, which they believe will determine House control next fall.

Despite stepping back from his congressional duties, McCarthy has pledged to stay involved and help the GOP retain its House majority. He chaired a recent fundraising dinner for the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) and has introduced Johnson to some donors. However, McCarthy's absence was already noticeable as he did not participate in multiple voting sessions following his retirement announcement.

Johnson, in his new role as Speaker, has decided to maintain the existing campaign infrastructure utilized by McCarthy and his predecessors, including the CLF, American Action Network (AAN), and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). This strategic move aims to ensure a smooth transition and to capitalize on the fundraising apparatus that McCarthy built over the years. The NRCC has also brought on board the former chief of staff for NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) as its new political director.

Overall, the departure of Kevin McCarthy poses significant challenges for the Republican Party in terms of campaign support and institutional knowledge. With the fight for control of the House likely to be decided in California, Republicans will need to navigate these hurdles in order to maintain their narrow majority in the upcoming elections.

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