In an official document revealed by +972's partner site Local Call, the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence is recommending the forcible and permanent transfer of the Gaza Strip's 2.2 million Palestinian residents to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. The 10-page document, dated Oct. 13, 2023, presents the ministry's assessment of three options regarding the future of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and strongly advocates for a full population transfer as its preferred course of action.

Although the existence of the document does not indicate that its recommendations are being considered by Israel's defense establishment, its detailed proposal amidst a large-scale military offensive on the Gaza Strip raises concerns about the potential use of forced population transfer as an official policy. The document suggests evacuating the civilian population to Sinai during the war, establishing tent cities and permanent settlements in the northern Sinai to accommodate the expelled population, and creating a "sterile zone" within Egypt to prevent their return.

The document further proposes enlisting the international community, particularly the United States, to support the population transfer. It outlines a campaign targeting Palestinian civilians in Gaza, aiming to motivate them to accept the plan and give up their land. The document also emphasizes the need to present the expulsion of Gaza's population as a humanitarian necessity, arguing that it would result in fewer casualties among the civilian population compared to the expected casualties if they remained.

While the chances of fully implementing such a plan are deemed negligible, given Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's strong opposition to absorbing the Palestinian population from Gaza, the significance of an official Israeli government ministry preparing such a detailed proposal cannot be ignored. The recommendation aligns with a position paper published by the right-wing think tank Misgav Institute, which also called for the forced transfer of Gaza's population to the Sinai Peninsula.

The document puts forward two alternative options for the residents of Gaza after the war: allowing the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza under Israeli auspices or cultivating another "local Arab authority" as an alternative to Hamas. However, the document argues that both options are undesirable for Israel from a strategic and security perspective, as they would fail to provide a sufficient message of deterrence, particularly to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It is important to note that the Intelligence Ministry, despite its name, is responsible for policy research and does not directly oversee any intelligence body. While the ministry's annual budget is relatively small, the authenticity of the document has been confirmed by the ministry itself. The document, which explicitly recommends transferring the Palestinian civilians as the desired outcome of the war, has sparked international concern, as such forced population transfer would constitute a serious war crime under international law.