Israel Faces Uncertainty Over Post-War Plan in Gaza as Conflict with Hamas Continues
ICARO Media Group
The Israeli military's ongoing operation against the Hamas militant group in northern Gaza has raised questions about Israel's post-war plan for the territory. As the conflict enters its sixth week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claims that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have effectively divided the Strip, with Hamas losing control in northern Gaza, including Gaza City.
Recent developments have added to the uncertainty surrounding Israel's plan. The Israeli military raided Gaza's largest hospital, Al-Shifa, alleging that Hamas had built a command center beneath it. In response, Hamas accused Israel of spreading false information. The Israeli army also released video footage of an operational tunnel shaft discovered on the hospital's grounds.
However, experts argue that Israel has yet to provide a clear and viable plan for the aftermath of the conflict. Frank Lowenstein, former Special Envoy for Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations under US President Barack Obama, explains that while Israel has outlined its security objectives, it has not offered a comprehensive strategy for Gaza's future.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not provided detailed information about his post-military operation plan for Gaza. He has stated that Israel's goals are to dismantle Hamas and secure the release of hostages kidnapped by the group. Netanyahu vaguely suggested that some form of Palestinian civilian government could govern Gaza, provided it aligns with Israel's security objectives. However, he did not provide specifics.
The United States has warned against re-occupying Gaza and emphasized the potential role of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the territory. Netanyahu, despite his past criticism of the PA, acknowledged the possibility of a reconstructed civilian authority in Gaza. However, experts question the practicality of this ambition, as Palestinians may be reluctant to work with Israel.
The PA's troubled history in Gaza, including its expulsion by Hamas in 2007, has raised doubts about its effectiveness. Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), argues that the PA is part of the problem, citing its inefficient governance in the West Bank and a lack of legitimacy among its constituents.
In the absence of a clear plan, international and regional stakeholders may be hesitant to support Israel's proposed solutions. Arab countries prefer the formation of a Palestinian coalition under the umbrella of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), providing broader representation than the current PA.
The Gaza Strip is already grappling with the effects of a nearly 17-year blockade, which has devastated its economy and left the majority of its population dependent on international aid. The recent conflict further exacerbates these challenges, setting back the Palestinian economy in Gaza and the West Bank for years to come. The UN Development Programme estimates that Gaza's reconstruction could cost up to $20 billion over the next five years.
As the conflict in Gaza continues, there is a growing need for a comprehensive and viable plan that addresses the long-term future of the territory. Without such a plan, the uncertainty surrounding Israel's post-war strategy remains a cause for concern.