In a significant development, Iraq and the U.S.-led military coalition have resumed meetings to discuss the withdrawal of troops who have been deployed in Iraq for years to combat the Islamic State (IS). The first meeting took place on January 27 but was put on hold shortly after due to an attack by Iran-backed militants on a U.S. outpost in Jordan, resulting in the death of three U.S. service members.

Following the attack, the United States carried out multiple retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria, including a recent strike that targeted a high-ranking commander of the powerful Kataib Hezbollah militia. The U.S. claims that the commander was responsible for planning and participating in attacks on American troops in the region.

Both Iraq and the U.S. had agreed last August to initiate talks on transitioning U.S. and coalition forces away from their primary role of assisting Iraq in combating IS. With approximately 2,500 U.S. troops currently stationed in Iraq, their withdrawal will be contingent on the security situation on the ground and the capabilities of the Iraqi armed forces, as stated in a recent statement by the Iraq government.

The resumed meetings aim to establish a new bilateral relationship between Iraq and the U.S., as long as the peace of the talks remains undisturbed, according to Iraq's statement. However, Iraq has long wrestled with balancing its relationships with the U.S. and Iran, both of which are allies of the Iraqi government but regional archenemies.

In recent months, Iran-aligned groups have launched a total of 170 attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, with the U.S. responding with retaliatory airstrikes. The U.S. has attributed a significant number of these attacks to Kataib Hezbollah. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a state-sanctioned faction comprised mostly of Shiite militias, including Kataib Hezbollah, have emerged as a powerful political force within Iraq's parliament.

The U.S. airstrikes against Kataib Hezbollah have drawn strong condemnation from the Iraqi government. However, the killing of three U.S. service members in Jordan was considered a red line, prompting Iran to disavow any knowledge or connection to the attack. In response, Kataib Hezbollah stated that it would cease launching attacks to avoid embarrassing the Iraqi government.

Notably, since February 4, there have been no further strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq, raising hopes for a decrease in tensions in the region. The upcoming talks will involve charting a path towards a new relationship between Iraq and the U.S., while taking into account the complex dynamics between these two countries and the threat posed by Iran-backed militants.

It remains to be seen how the negotiations will unfold and whether both sides will be able to navigate the challenges posed by competing interests within Iraq's political landscape.