In a show of defiant deterrence, Iranian-backed militias have continued their attacks on American forces, despite increasing strikes on their military facilities and personnel. Iran's perceived "safe haven" status as a result of successfully deterring a direct American attack on its soil has emboldened Tehran to support its proxies, further fueling the cycle of aggression in the region.

The escalation began on January 28 when the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, supported by Iran, launched a drone strike on the American Tower 22 facility in Jordan. The attack resulted in the deaths of a serviceman and two servicewomen, and left at least 34 others injured. President Biden promptly announced that the United States would respond, but the retaliation was delayed until February 2.

Surprisingly, when American B-1 bombers were eventually deployed, their targets were not within Iranian territory. Instead, over 85 facilities associated with the Iran-backed militia and its sponsor, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, were targeted in Syria and Iraq. The strikes aimed to cripple the militia's capabilities, but critics argue that the advance notice of the operation allowed many senior Iranians to evacuate targeted locations.

On the following day, the U.S. Navy, alongside allies like Britain, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand, launched strikes against 36 Houthi targets at 13 locations in Yemen. The U.S. Central Command described these areas as "Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled." Notably, the Biden administration had recently re-designated the Houthis as terrorists, three years after removing them from the list.

Critics contend that these retaliatory strikes against Iran's proxies have failed to effectively deter them from their continued attacks on American forces and international shipping. Some have urged the U.S. to directly target Iran itself, but the administration fears that such action would risk triggering a wider conflict in the Middle East.

This hesitancy is being seen by many as a form of self-deterrence, similar to the response seen in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, where the fear of nuclear escalation prevented the United States from providing immediate military support to Ukraine. The argument is that unnecessary self-deterrence has hindered the U.S. from achieving its objectives in various conflicts, including Ukraine and now with Iran.

The current crisis in the Middle East highlights the challenge that Iran poses, as it successfully deters the United States despite being a relatively weaker nation. Iran's strategy of "deterrence by denial," aimed at making American objectives infeasible or unlikely to succeed, has proven effective against a superpower like the U.S. that fears wider engagement and potential electoral consequences.

As long as Iran continues to successfully deter a direct American attack on its soil, it will likely persist in supporting its proxies. This, in turn, will sustain the cycle of attacks on American forces and international shipping, regardless of threats or retaliatory military strikes.

The ongoing standoff between Iran and the United States highlights the complex dynamics and challenges faced by both countries in the Middle East, with no immediate resolution in sight.