As Iowans prepare for the upcoming presidential nominating process, concerns are growing about the relevance of their "first in the nation" status. While Iowa has long been a pivotal starting point for the national race, some speculate that the caucuses may not carry the same weight this year.

Traditionally, Iowa's caucuses have been a significant event, capturing attention from both politicians and the media. However, as the 2024 cycle unfolds, the word "relevance" has appeared in media coverage, raising questions about the impact of the caucuses.

Although the Democrats have chosen not to begin their delegate selection in Iowa this year, the Republicans still consider it a consequential test for their candidates. The caucuses hold a unique position as the first instance of actual voting in the presidential race, setting the stage for the influential primary in New Hampshire, which follows on January 23.

For decades, Iowa has marketed itself not only as the starting line but also as a source of surprise. The state's caucuses have a history of shaking up the race and catching the media off guard. Candidates like George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush experienced breakthrough moments in Iowa that propelled them to prominence.

However, the anticipation of surprises may fall flat this time due to the dominance of former President Donald Trump in the Republican field. Polls consistently show that Trump has a strong hold on the state's politically active white evangelicals, a crucial voting bloc in previous GOP cycles. If Trump fails to secure less than half of the Republican total on caucus night, it would genuinely be a surprise in the realm of Iowa caucuses.

Meanwhile, the attention has shifted towards the new second-place status of Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina. Recent polls have shown her leading among the Republican contenders, even garnering 20% support in an Iowa poll by Suffolk University. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once considered a strong rival to Trump, has seen his numbers decline both in Iowa and elsewhere.

If DeSantis were to disappoint in Iowa, it could potentially mark a turning point in his campaign. Many speculate that a poor showing in the caucuses might force him to drop out of the race altogether, given his heavy investment in the state and lower expectations for the upcoming New Hampshire primary.

While the diminished significance of Iowa's caucuses was somewhat expected after the Democratic National Committee's decision to sever the connection between the caucuses and actual delegate selection following the 2020 debacle, the state has experienced ups and downs before. In the past, periods of low interest in Iowa's caucuses were followed by a resurgence of participation and media attention.

The changing political landscape has brought about uncertainty for the Iowa caucuses. Nevertheless, as Monday night approaches, Iowans remain eager to have their voices heard and make their mark on the 2024 presidential race.