In a newly declassified intelligence report, it has been unveiled that China, Russia, and Iran showed higher rates of interference in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections compared to the 2018 midterms. The report, produced in December 2022 and declassified last week, provided an assessment by the intelligence community (IC) on the extent of foreign threats during the elections.

Unlike the comprehensive influence campaign carried out by Russia in the 2016 election, the IC did not find any directive from foreign leaders for a whole-of-government influence campaign. However, foreign activity was detected at a lower level when compared to presidential cycles. The report highlighted a "diverse and growing group of foreign actors" engaging in election influence operations. Notably, China exhibited a greater willingness to conduct election influence activities than in previous cycles.

The report attributed the involvement of more foreign actors to shifting geopolitical risk calculus, the normalization of election influence activity, the low cost but potentially high reward of such activities, and the increased emphasis on election security in IC collection and analysis.

Importantly, the IC did not find persistent efforts to gain access to election infrastructure or change votes, as these actions were deemed technologically challenging. Instead, foreign actors were primarily focused on amplifying authentic U.S. public narratives to influence electoral outcomes, increase mistrust in the U.S. election processes, and exacerbate sociopolitical divisions.

With "high confidence," the IC determined that the Russian government and its proxies sought to denigrate the Democratic Party ahead of the midterm elections, aiming to undermine confidence in the election and potentially impact U.S. support for Ukraine. The report disclosed that Kremlin intelligence services conducted extensive research and analysis of U.S. audiences to aid their election meddling efforts, identifying target demographics and narratives to appeal to these audiences.

The IC also assessed with "high confidence" that China tacitly approved efforts to influence specific midterm races against politicians perceived as anti-China. Chinese leaders allegedly viewed these actions as a response to what they believed was an intensified U.S. effort to promote democracy at China's expense.

Iran, with moderate confidence, was found to have attempted to exploit perceived social divisions and undermine confidence in U.S. democratic institutions. The report acknowledged that Iran's efforts were likely limited by the available resources due to internal unrest within the country.

In addition, the report revealed that Cuba took steps to undermine U.S. politicians seeking reelection, with a focus on candidates in Florida. However, the IC noted that Cuba's efforts were smaller in scale and more narrowly targeted compared to the activities of China, Iran, and Russia.

The findings of the intelligence report shed light on the increasing prevalence of foreign meddling in U.S. elections, necessitating stronger measures to safeguard the integrity of the electoral process. As the 2022 U.S. midterm elections draw nearer, the information provided by the IC will likely guide efforts to counter foreign interference and safeguard democratic principles.