According to the latest data from Gallup, political independents have reached a record high, constituting an average of 43% of U.S. adults in 2023, tying the previous high from 2014. This marks the largest political bloc in the country, surpassing both Republicans and Democrats. The survey also reveals that equal shares of 27% of U.S. adults identify as Republicans and Democrats, with the Democratic figure hitting a new low for that party in Gallup's trend.

Since 1991, independents have consistently outnumbered supporters of the major political parties, except for several years between 2004 and 2008. While the increase in the percentage of independents over time has come at the expense of both Democrats and Republicans, it has particularly impacted the Democratic Party, which was previously the largest political group.

The decline in Democratic identification can be attributed to President Joe Biden's unpopularity, with his job approval ratings hovering around 40% since late 2021. The record low for Republican identification was observed in 2013 at 25%. However, in 2023, Republicans maintain a slight edge over Democrats when it comes to leaned party identification. A combined 45% of U.S. adults identify as Republicans or lean towards the GOP, while 43% identify as Democrats or Democratic leaners.

In terms of ideological identification, conservatives and moderates tie for the top spot, with both groups comprising 36% of U.S. adults. Liberals make up 25% of the population. Over the past decade, ideological identification has remained relatively stable, with a notable increase in liberal identification within the Democratic Party. Last year, 53% of Democrats identified as liberal, compared to 35% as moderate and 11% as conservative.

As the 2024 election season kicks off, the parties find themselves closely matched in terms of party identification and leanings. However, Democrats are in a weaker position compared to previous election years, as evident from the new low percentage of adults identifying as Democrats and the Republican advantage in leaned party identification. For Democrats to stand a chance in the upcoming election, it will be crucial for them to nominate a candidate who can appeal to independent voters, who remain the largest and potentially most influential voting group.

The Gallup poll also highlights that presidential election years typically see a decline in the percentage of political independents, as the focus shifts to national politics and the two major parties. Nonetheless, even with a slight decrease, independents will remain a pivotal group of voters. In what is expected to be a closely contested election, both parties will need to strategize and appeal to independent voters to secure victory.

The findings are based on telephone interviews conducted in 2023 with a total sample of 12,145 adults across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level.