Independent Voters Pose Major Hurdle for Trump's Third GOP Nomination in New Hampshire
ICARO Media Group
According to experts, independent voters in New Hampshire could potentially derail former President Donald Trump's chances of securing his third GOP presidential nomination. With a significant number of unaffiliated voters in the state, surpassing the count of both Republicans and Democrats, Trump faces a serious risk of a decisive win being compromised, shared GOP analyst Ryan Girdusky with The Post.
Unlike in other states, New Hampshire allows independents to participate in either party's primary. Girdusky highlighted that many of these independent voters lean towards the center-left, which is a cause for concern for Trump. If a substantial number of these independent voters turn up, they may play a significant role in carrying the state for other candidates like Nikki Haley.
Girdusky dismissed Trump's claims that troublemakers among the registered Democrats in New Hampshire would infiltrate the Republican primary. State law dictates that registered Democrats cannot participate in the contest, effectively dispelling Trump's concerns. Furthermore, in October, New Hampshire officials reported that only 1.5% of the state's Democrat Party membership, around 3,950 voters, had switched their registration to either the Republican Party or "undeclared" status in time to vote in the GOP primary.
Despite Trump's attempts to rally his supporters in New Hampshire by suggesting that left-leaning partisans are scheming to influence the Republican vote, there is no evidence to support his claims. Polls indicate that Haley, the former UN ambassador, is running second in the state, and Trump's lead seems to be widening after his victory in Iowa.
The New Hampshire Secretary of State, David M. Scanlan, predicted a record-high turnout of 322,000 voters in the Republican primary. This number, significantly higher than the count of registered Republicans in the state, suggests that a considerable number of undeclared voters might participate in the GOP contest.
With the Democratic Party's New Hampshire primary seeming inconsequential due to the scheduling rules favoring South Carolina, many left-leaning voters could potentially seize the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with Trump. In the previous contested primary in New Hampshire, Trump secured independent voters with 36% of the vote in a crowded field of eleven candidates, as per exit polls.
While Trump continues to focus on controlling the narrative, current GOP primary polls in New Hampshire show him maintaining a lead over Nikki Haley. As of Saturday, the RealClearPolitics polling average indicated a 16-point lead for Trump, with Haley trailing far behind. A daily tracking poll from Suffolk University also gave Trump a significant 17-point lead, with 53% of the vote.
With the Republican primary in New Hampshire poised for high turnout and the influence of independent voters, it remains to be seen whether Trump's grip on the nomination will remain as strong as he claims.
(Note: The article has been generated using the information provided and does not contain any original reporting.)