Growing Field of Challengers Complicates President Biden's Re-election Bid
ICARO Media Group
President Biden's re-election bid is facing new challenges as a growing list of declared or potential challengers emerge, potentially complicating his efforts to secure a second term and defeat his leading rival, Donald Trump. These include Jill Stein announcing another presidential bid as the Green Party candidate in 2024, as well as Sen. Joe Manchin III considering a third-party run. Rep. Dean Phillips has also launched a Democratic primary challenge, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running as an independent in the general election.
Biden, who is already grappling with low popularity and concerns among Democrats about his standing, now faces these additional obstacles in his path to re-election. Recent national and swing-state polls have shown him either tied or trailing behind Trump. However, Biden and his allies argue that the polls do not reflect actual votes and point to positive election results during his term, including the Democratic Party's successes in the Virginia legislature, the retention of the Kentucky governor's office, and a key ballot initiative win in Ohio, all of which were driven by an electorate focused on protecting abortion rights.
Despite the challenges, some analysts believe that most of Biden's opponents are more symbolic than real threats. Rep. Dean Phillips, although potentially well-funded and supported by experienced political consultants, remains a long shot and is primarily focused on a handful of primary states. The likelihood of Manchin launching a presidential campaign is unclear, as is the ability of some independent candidates, like Kennedy, to gather the necessary signatures to appear on state ballots.
Democratic consultant Joe Trippi suggests that the most significant threat to Biden comes from potential well-funded efforts by No Labels, a group exploring a bipartisan third-party ticket, and the possibility of a stronger third-party campaign drawing voters away from Biden. The strength of third-party candidates played a decisive role in Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but performed weaker in 2020.
Recent developments have reshaped the political landscape in favor of Biden's challengers. Academic Cornel West abandoned his Green Party bid in favor of an independent run, creating space for Jill Stein's campaign from the left. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also shifted from a Democratic campaign to run as an independent. Rep. Dean Phillips has garnered support from advisers of Sen. Bernie Sanders and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. Additionally, a Draft Romney Manchin Committee has filed papers with the Federal Election Commission, although Senator Mitt Romney's office quickly denied any involvement.
The Biden campaign acknowledges the upcoming election's closeness, likely hinging on a small number of voters in a small number of states. Campaign advisers plan to emphasize the stark differences between Biden and Trump, highlighting multiple pathways to reelection.
The role of No Labels, a group closely associated with Senator Joe Manchin, remains a contentious issue. No Labels has been acquiring ballot access in several states for a potential third-party campaign, with a nominating convention planned for April in Dallas. The group intends to move forward only if there is a clear path to victory and minimal chances of aiding Trump's reelection. However, concerns persist about the group's lack of donor disclosure, with critics claiming it embodies Washington corruption.
With the entry of a growing field of challengers, President Biden's re-election campaign faces complex hurdles. While some of these challenges may not fully materialize, the emergence of potential third-party campaigns and support for his opponents highlights the widespread discontent with Biden's leadership within his own party. As the election approaches, the political landscape is likely to shift further, presenting both opportunities and obstacles for the Biden campaign.