Gold Price Consolidates Above Key Support as Sentiment and Yields Impact Gains
ICARO Media Group
Gold prices continue to consolidate above key support as rising yields and improving sentiment limit gains in the precious metal. Despite a weaker US Dollar, gold's attempt to breach the $2000/oz level on Friday fell short. Retail traders remain overwhelmingly long on gold and silver, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors.
The ongoing struggle to surpass $2000/oz suggests that the safe-haven appeal of gold may be waning, even as geopolitical uncertainties persist in the Middle East. The Fear and Greed index, which experienced a significant uptick last week, currently hovers at a relatively lower level, reflecting growing optimism that a wider regional conflict may be avoided.
While a weaker US Dollar supports gold prices, a sustained break above the $2000 level may require continued weakness in US economic data, signaling a potential halt in Federal Reserve rate hikes. However, the immediate downside risk for gold lies in the improved sentiment and risk appetite, which could push prices towards a deeper retracement around $1950.
Technical analysis suggests that gold needs to hold above the $1977-1980 support area on the daily timeframe to maintain bullish momentum. Resistance around the $2000/oz mark has proven to be significant, with multiple failed attempts to break through. Additionally, a significant upside wick in the Friday daily candle close indicates persistent selling pressure above $2000/oz.
Looking ahead, the next 48 hours will bring a series of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers, with Fed Chair Powell scheduled to provide comments on Wednesday and Thursday. Market participants will be keen to gauge any attempts to quell optimism about the Fed's stance on rate hikes. The comments of Fed policymaker Thomas Barkin, highlighting the need for further data analysis before assuming Fed outlook, may prove influential.
From a technical perspective, gold's overall bullish structure remains intact unless there is a daily candle close below the $1968 support area. There is a possibility of a slight dip below support at $1980 before a potential bounce towards the psychological $2000/oz level. Furthermore, the moving averages indicate a potential golden cross pattern, with the 50-day MA poised to cross above the 100 and 200-day MAs, signaling bullish momentum.
The macro and geopolitical uncertainties prevalent in 2023 continue to impact gold, creating mixed signals for investors. As gold consolidates above key support and eyes potential catalysts from Fed speeches and economic data, market participants will closely monitor the precious metal's next move to evaluate its resilience and outlook in the face of ever-changing market dynamics.