Gold Futures Soar to New Record High, Signals Potential for Further Upside
ICARO Media Group
Gold futures reached their highest ever on Friday and are on the verge of a "golden cross," indicating the potential for continued gains in the precious metal. The surge in gold prices can be attributed to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have fueled investor concerns and risk aversion, according to Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital.
The market rally in gold was further bolstered by changing expectations regarding monetary policy. Traders have been speculating on a possible end to the interest rate hiking cycle and potential rate cuts in the first half of next year. This sentiment has contributed to the upward trend of gold prices over the past two months.
On Friday, gold for February delivery climbed $32.50, or 1.6%, settling at a record-high of $2,089.70 an ounce on Comex. This surpasses the previous record of $2,069.40 set on August 6, 2020. Intraday trading saw gold prices reach as high as $2,095.70, exceeding the previous intraday high of $2,089.20 on August 7, 2020.
The rally in gold began after the release of the October consumer-price index, which showed that the U.S. cost of living remained unchanged. This was interpreted as a sign that the Federal Reserve might have tamed inflation and could potentially reduce rates sooner and faster than previously anticipated. Lower Fed rates lead to lower Treasury yields and a potential increase in demand for dollar-denominated gold.
As gold futures approach a "golden cross," where the short-term moving average surpasses the long-term moving average, experts predict further gains in the immediate term. Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, believes that the proximity of the all-time high will act as a magnet for the price, driving continued upward momentum.
Peter Spina, president of GoldSeek.com, expects significantly higher gold prices in the coming months, noting that the gold bull market's stealth phase has come to an end and will be recognized by the mainstream. The increase in gold prices is partly due to the weakening purchasing power of the U.S. dollar against superior currencies.
Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's caution regarding inflation, gold remains supported by bets on future interest-rate cuts. The Fed's decision in March will likely be influenced by key economic data, including CPI and jobs figures.
However, experts also caution that gold's all-time high may indicate a "quadruple top" unless the precious metal can decisively break through a new plateau, potentially above $2,100 per ounce.