In recent weeks, American consumers have been feeling the pinch at the pump as gasoline prices continue to climb across the country. The national average for a gallon of gas has increased by 11 cents in just one week, reaching $3.28, the highest level in almost three months, according to AAA.

While some degree of price fluctuation is to be expected during the transition from winter to spring, this year's rise in gas prices is further exacerbated by refinery outages. The Midwest, in particular, has been heavily impacted by the closure of BP's Whiting refinery in Indiana, which is not only the largest refinery in the region but also the largest in the world for BP. This unscheduled shutdown has severely limited the supply of gasoline and contributed to significant price spikes in states like Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.

According to AAA, gas prices have surged by as much as 47 cents in Ohio, 40 cents in Indiana, and 36 cents in Illinois over the past month. Refinery outages in the Rocky Mountain region, including Colorado and New Mexico, have also played a role in the price increases.

The rising prices present a challenge for consumers already grappling with increased costs of living. The Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation are further complicated by the higher gas prices, and the White House's messaging on a thriving economy could be undermined as well. Previously, cheap gas prices were touted as evidence of successful economic policies.

GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, acknowledges the sensitivity of rising gas prices for Americans and suggests that market forces rather than the President or administration policies determine these fluctuations. He predicts that the national average could reach $3.50 per gallon by March or April, but he does not foresee prices surpassing $4 per gallon unless unforeseen circumstances arise.

Factors beyond the refinery outages are also contributing to the rise in gas prices. The price of oil, a crucial driver of retail gas prices, has increased by approximately $10 per barrel since mid-December, reaching $78 per barrel currently. Additionally, the switch to more expensive summer blends of fuel and scheduled maintenance shutdowns further limit the amount of oil that refineries can convert into gasoline, exacerbating the supply constraints.

Looking ahead, experts anticipate a continued increase in gas prices, albeit at a slower pace. Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, predicts that the national average will peak between $3.50 and $3.75 per gallon during the summer months. However, as long as there are no major disruptions, such as tensions escalating in the Middle East, the impact on gas prices should remain manageable.

It is important to note that while gas prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, they are still lower than they were a year ago when the national average for regular gas stood at $3.42 per gallon. Nonetheless, consumers should brace themselves for higher prices at the pump in the coming months, but experts believe that a significant spike above $5 per gallon, as seen in June 2022, is unlikely unless unforeseen circumstances arise.

As drivers hit the road for the Presidents' Day weekend, they will find themselves facing the highest gas prices in months. With refinery outages and increased oil prices, the cost of fuel is bound to put pressure on already strained household budgets. It remains to be seen how this trend will impact the overall economy and the outlook for inflation in the months ahead.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is based on the sources mentioned and may undergo changes or updates as the situation develops.