France's undocumented migrants are facing an uncertain future under the country's newly passed immigration law. Despite the pressing issue of labor shortages, the French government chose to enact a more restrictive bill after diluting measures that would have streamlined the process for legalizing foreign workers. However, certain provisions in the law may offer a glimmer of hope for the hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants in the country.

The initial text of the immigration bill, presented a year ago by Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin and Labour Minister Olivier Dussopt, included measures to facilitate the legalization of undocumented migrants employed in sectors with labor shortages. However, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party vehemently rejected any legislation that would grant legal status to undocumented workers.

While the new law falls short of the original text, it does provide a path for residency permits for undocumented workers in high-demand professions. In fact, Darmanin expects the number of legalizations to double, with an additional ten thousand foreign workers gaining legal status each year.

However, on the flip side, the law also imposes greater challenges and risks for undocumented workers in France. A previously abolished law that allowed fines of up to €3,750 for foreigners found to be in the country unlawfully has been reintroduced, making it more difficult for undocumented workers. Furthermore, the bill increases sanctions against companies employing illegal workers.

Estimating the number of undocumented workers in France is challenging, but Darmanin approximates it to be between 600,000 and 900,000 individuals. One such individual is Amadou, who moved to France from Mali on a work visa in 2001. Despite maintaining consistent employment in the hospitality and retirement home sectors, he has been unable to obtain working papers, despite multiple attempts.

Amadou is a member of an association supporting undocumented migrants in Montreuil, a suburb of Paris. While he participates in protests, he acknowledges the limited power he and others like him possess. He recognizes that the politicians hold the decision-making authority and that undocumented migrants are not their priority.

The reluctance of France's right-wing Les Republicains party and the far-right National Rally to endorse a path to legal status stems from their belief that migrants choose France due to its advantageous social system. They argue that making life difficult for migrants will prevent more from coming, a notion unsupported by research. Conversely, studies demonstrate that legalizing migrants has positive economic and fiscal outcomes in developed countries.

Economist Pierre Cahuc has highlighted the significant benefits that legalizing migrants can have on a country's economy, particularly in the context of low growth and an aging population. The Institute of Labour Economics has also emphasized the positive fiscal impact of declared work, generating income for the state coffers.

Violaine Carrère, a lawyer at Gisti, an immigrant information and support group, agrees, pointing out that being on the payroll allows individuals to contribute to social security and have a stable income. Legalization enables migrants to integrate fully and lead a dignified life, benefiting not only the economy but also the individuals themselves.

France currently faces labor shortages in eight out of ten professions, with increased demand resulting from an aging population and a wave of resignations. While it may seem contradictory to target low unemployment rates and seek increased migrant labor, experts note that domestic labor, mostly comprising young individuals, cannot fully compensate for the shortages. Migrants offer a flexible and mobile labor force that can fill gaps in low-skilled jobs that non-migrant workers may be unable or unwilling to undertake.

To address these challenges, migration policy analysts argue for reducing bureaucratic hurdles for issuing work permits to migrants who have already demonstrated their commitment to participating in the economy. This approach is evident even in countries with anti-immigration governments, such as Italy's recent decree allowing non-EU migrant workers to address seasonal labor shortages.

Moving forward, France's business community recognizes the necessity of relying on a foreign labor force. Patrick Martin, head of the French entrepreneurs' union, emphasizes the need to acknowledge this reality and make choices that enable a larger immigrant workforce. Experts suggest that simplifying work permit issuance for qualified migrants can be a crucial part of the solution.

While the new immigration law in France presents mixed prospects for undocumented migrants, it also highlights the significance of addressing labor shortages and recognizing the potential contributions of migrants to the economy. As the country grapples with both demographic challenges and the need for a thriving labor market, finding a balanced approach will be crucial for ensuring a prosperous future.

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