As winter approaches, discussions about the potential effects of El Niño on snowfall patterns begin to surface. While El Niño's influence on weather patterns is not a guarantee, its peak strength during the winter months often leads to significant changes in climate across the United States.

According to Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño tends to act as a "snowfall suppressor" over most of North America. While the southern half of the country may experience increased precipitation, it is not always cold enough to transform this moisture into snow. The greatest snowfall occurs in the mountainous regions of the West, such as the Sierra Nevada mountain in California and the southern Rocky Mountains. However, areas like the Great Lakes, parts of New England, the northern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest typically see decreased snowfall during an El Niño winter.

L'Heureux explains that during a strong El Niño, which is expected this year, the effects become more pronounced. Northern California, the Four Corners states, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, as well as the southern Appalachia region, are likely to experience increased snowfall.

Snowfall patterns during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters, between January and March, can be observed through a map provided by NOAA Climate.gov. The areas shaded in blue indicate where average snowfall is expected, while those shaded in brown suggest below-average snowfall. South Dakota usually experiences average snowfall during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters, with a decrease in snow chances the closer one is to Minnesota.

However, it is important to note that El Niño merely influences the odds of certain climate outcomes without guaranteeing them. Additionally, the long-term trend of climate change has resulted in less snowy winters for much of the United States. Nonetheless, unusual snowstorms can still occur even during an El Niño year, defying the expected patterns.

The Climate Prediction Center's most recent outlook predicts a 75% to 85% chance of a "strong" El Niño occurring this winter, with a 30% possibility of it being one of the strongest ever recorded. As winter progresses, it will be vital to monitor weather updates and forecasts to accurately gauge the impact of El Niño on snowfall patterns across the nation.