As the 2024 presidential rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump takes shape, one recurring theme remains constant: the state of the US economy is expected to be the key concern for voters. Despite some anomalies in this election cycle, such as ongoing criminal trials for Trump and surging inflation under Biden's administration, both candidates' past experiences as presidents provide voters with a tangible record to evaluate their economic performance.

Yahoo Finance has been tracking the economic achievements of both Trump and Biden since Trump assumed office in 2017, using consistent methodology to facilitate an apples-to-apples comparison. In seven key economic metrics, Biden currently holds a slim lead with a 4-3 advantage. The areas in which Biden surpasses Trump include overall job growth, manufacturing jobs, GDP growth, and exports. On the other hand, Trump fares better in stock market performance, real-income growth, and low inflation.

If the economy remains stable throughout the rest of 2024, as predicted by most economists, Biden is expected to maintain his 4-3 lead in these metrics. This tracking measurement compares the current president's economy to that of previous presidents at a similar stage in their terms. Trump's fourth year in office was heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a decline in employment figures and GDP growth. Consequently, Biden currently holds a slight advantage when their economic performance is directly compared. Should the stock market thrive, Biden could even extend his lead to 5-2 in these metrics.

However, the story doesn't end there. Inflation emerges as Biden's most significant economic challenge, even though the rate of price increases is now returning to normal levels. Many voters still harbor negative sentiments due to sustained price rises. Confidence measures remained low despite a robust job market, with consumers slowly regaining optimism as gas prices drop and food prices stabilize. Biden's approval rating suffered a decline as inflation worsened in 2022 and has not subsequently recovered.

Another wildcard in the economic equation is the COVID-19 pandemic, which influences how Americans perceive the economic achievements of both Biden and Trump. Prior to the pandemic, the Trump economy was generally performing well until the arrival of COVID-19 in 2020, triggering a brief but severe recession. Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures were necessary to mitigate its impact, leading to a strong recovery and a stock market boom as Trump's term came to an end. Should Trump be credited with the significant stock rally mainly driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary easing?

In contrast, Biden assumed office as the economy was already benefiting from the stimulus-induced COVID-19 recovery. This favorable circumstance contributes to Biden's strong employment and GDP figures. However, the excessive stimulus, coupled with pandemic-related disruptions such as disrupted supply chains and heightened demand for goods, resulted in a 9% inflation rate in 2022, the highest since 1981. Should Biden take sole credit for the creation of new jobs, or should Congress and the Federal Reserve also share responsibility? Should strong job growth under Biden be attributed solely to him, or should he also be held accountable for the prevailing inflation?

In essence, if Biden had been president during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the cycle of recession, stimulus, and recovery would likely have mirrored what occurred under Trump's leadership. Similarly, if Trump had started a second term in 2021, he would have likely faced a comparable paradox of record job growth and unnerving inflation. Though presidential candidates often overstate their influence on the economy, it is evident that presidents alone do not hold the power to significantly sway economic trends.

Of course, there are notable differences in the policies proposed by each candidate for their prospective terms. Incumbent Joe Biden aims to increase taxes on businesses and the wealthy, expand social benefits, promote green energy, and adopt a more confrontational stance towards nations such as Russia and China. On the other hand, challenger Donald Trump advocates for maintaining or further reducing taxes, cutting government spending, removing green energy incentives, expanding oil drilling, and generally disengaging the United States from global conflicts. These policy disparities may ultimately shape voters' decisions as they cast their ballots in just 10 months' time.