Chipotle (CMG) is set to release its third quarter earnings results on Thursday, stirring anticipation among investors. The return of the fan-favorite Carne Asada in mid-September is expected to drive positive transaction growth and potentially boost sales figures.

According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, Chipotle is projected to experience a 4.37% year-over-year increase in same-store sales, slightly lower than the 7.6% growth witnessed in Q3 of the previous year. Despite this, the fast-casual restaurant chain remains favored by Wall Street, boasting 24 "Buys," 10 "Holds," and no "Sells" as of Wednesday. Chipotle's shares have surged by 32.61% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500.

Deutsche Bank analyst Lauren Silberman identified Chipotle as a "top pick," citing its "fundamental story" with accelerating unit growth and margin expansion. TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles echoed this sentiment, labeling Chipotle as "well liked" and expecting the company to provide guidance for its 2024 development.

Bloomberg consensus estimates indicate that Chipotle is anticipated to report net sales of $2.47 billion, representing an 11.3% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, adjusted EPS is expected to rise by 9.8% to $10.51. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on digital sales growth, forecasting an 8.79% increase, and an operating margin expectation of 15.4%.

Chipotle's upcoming earnings report follows its recent decision to raise prices for the fourth time in two years. Although the company has not disclosed the specifics of the price increase, market speculation suggests a potential 3%-3.5% hike during Q4 when a menu update typically occurs. However, the higher prices are not expected to dampen Chipotle's growth prospects, as they may contribute to higher revenue next quarter.

Deutsche Bank's Lauren Silberman anticipates further details on Chipotle's same-store sales guidance, projecting mid-single-digit growth. With the introduction of price increases, the potential for mid-to-high single-digit same-store sales growth could be achievable.

Investors and industry analysts alike eagerly await Chipotle's earnings release to gain insight into sales growth and the impact of recent price hikes. The market reaction to these results will undoubtedly shape the future trajectory of the popular fast-casual chain.