China's carbon emissions are on the verge of entering a period of structural decline, with fresh analysis suggesting that they could peak in 2023 and start decreasing from 2024 onwards. The analysis, based on official government figures and commercial data from Carbon Brief, indicates a significant shift in China's energy landscape.

The rebound in energy demand following the relaxation of Covid restrictions earlier this year has resulted in a 4.7% year-on-year increase in carbon emissions for the third quarter of 2023. However, China's commitment to clean energy development has exceeded expectations and is paving the way for a sustainable future.

Recent figures reveal that China has already achieved its annual solar and wind capacity deployment targets by September, with solar installations growing by 210GW this year alone. This substantial growth means that China has added twice the solar capacity of the entire US market and four times more than it added in 2020.

By the end of the year, China's total solar capacity is expected to surpass 600GW, with solar-panel production capacity projected to exceed 1TW by 2025. In addition, China has installed roughly 70GW of wind capacity in 2023, surpassing the entire power generation capacity of the UK.

China's efforts to expand its clean energy sector are further evident in its achievements in hydropower and battery development. From the beginning of 2022 to September 2023, China has added 29GW of hydropower capacity, resulting in a seven per cent increase. Battery output is expected to reach 800GWh this year, enough to power 20 million electric vehicles (EVs) and representing a significant increase from the 550GWh recorded in 2022. The production of EVs has also surged, with over eight million units produced in the past 12 months, accounting for more than 30 per cent of all vehicles manufactured in China.

Lauri Myllyvirta, a lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, predicts that these "record additions" will drive a decline in China's fossil fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions starting in 2024. He explains that the expansion of low-carbon energy sources is now sufficient to not only meet but exceed the country's annual increase in electricity demand. This development could initiate a sustained, structural decline in emissions across various sectors, potentially positioning China as a global leader in combating climate change.

Despite this positive outlook, concerns remain regarding new coal plant construction in China. At the end of June, 136GW of coal power capacity was already under construction, and an additional 99GW has obtained planning permits. Furthermore, despite President Xi Jinping's commitment to controlling coal-fired power projects, another 25GW has been permitted since then. China has projected that coal power capacity will peak at 1,370GW by 2030, necessitating either an immediate halt to new permits or an accelerated closure of existing and planned coal plants.

The analysis aligns with the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2023, which predicts a potential peak in global energy-related emissions starting from next year. The agency emphasizes the transformative impact of clean technology deployment, predicting that clean energy could deliver up to 50 per cent of the global power mix by 2030.

As China strengthens its position as a pioneer in clean energy development, these projections highlight the country's commitment to combating climate change and embracing a sustainable energy future.