WASHINGTON - Jan. 16, 2022 is not a date that will stand out to many, but it was the last time Washington, D.C. picked up more than an inch of snow. However, there is a slight chance that the 312-day streak may be broken on Monday morning, as a burst of snow could greet early risers ahead of the Monday morning commute.

Before the possible snowfall, the region is expected to experience heavy rain. Weather guidance projects between one and three inches of rain for the entire Mid-Atlantic region throughout the day. A flood watch is in effect for the D.C. and Baltimore metro regions due to the anticipated rainfall, resulting in slow traffic and wet roadways, especially during the nighttime hours.

As the system moves away overnight, colder air will descend southward into the D.C. region from the northwest. Typically, this brings drier air and prevents precipitation from changing over to snow. However, in this case, the parent trough driving the precipitation is trailing the surface front and colder air by a couple hundred miles. As a result, there should still be enough moisture to change rain to a mix or snow before the event ends, most likely after 1 a.m. on Monday morning, from west to east.

Early morning commuters may encounter snowfall in the pre-dawn hours, potentially heavy in some spots, leading to slushy accumulations for a brief period of time. However, the key factor in this event is temperature. Ground temperatures are not particularly cold, and while colder air is expected to arrive, it will lag at the surface. Snowfall is more likely to melt upon contact, known as "white rain," unless the snowfall rates exceed the rate at which the ground can melt it. Futurecast indicates that some areas may witness brief heavy snowfall, mostly on grassy roadways, with a possibility of a slushy coating on side streets. However, any accumulation is expected to quickly melt once the snow lightens and stops.

The National Weather Service suggests that the chances of accumulating snow are rather low, and any snowfall will likely melt upon contact. They anticipate that the precipitation will wrap up before causing significant issues in the region. The most likely scenario is for the boundary layer to remain above freezing, while precipitation rates decrease as low-level drier air moves in towards morning.

While the possibility of snowfall remains, it is not expected to majorly impact area schools or disrupt Monday morning plans for most individuals in the D.C. area. The National Weather Service indicates that the first measurable snow of the year is expected in the pre-dawn hours, with precipitation likely to taper off around and after sunrise.

Following the cold front, a windy day is expected on Monday, with a chilly workweek ahead. The region can anticipate a mostly sunny and dry workweek, according to the latest guidance, with dry conditions expected through the upcoming weekend.

Looking ahead to the Christmas holiday, early forecast projections suggest a seasonally mild pattern. However, the FOX 5 Weather Team will provide updates if any changes occur.

Overall, Washington, D.C. has a 25% chance of seeing its first measurable snow of the year, potentially breaking the 312-day streak since the last snowfall. While the snowfall may be brief and not cause significant disruptions, residents should be prepared for potentially slushy conditions during the early morning commute.