In a disappointing turn of events, a bipartisan compromise on immigration reform fell apart in the Senate this week, as Republicans followed the advice of former President Donald Trump and abandoned the deal. This situation not only highlights Trump's influence over Republicans, but also reflects a recurring pattern in immigration politics where Republicans withdraw their support after striking a compromise with Democrats.

Throughout the years, lawmakers have reached bipartisan agreements on immigration in 2006, 2013, and 2018, combining pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants with increased border security measures. However, each time, Republicans backed away, citing concerns over granting "amnesty" to those who entered the country illegally.

This time, the deal took a different form. Republicans were to receive stricter border security measures, including provisions that Democrats had previously criticized during the Trump administration. The compromise did not include a pathway to citizenship; instead, Republicans would gain support for military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Nonetheless, Republicans once again negotiated the deal but promptly distanced themselves from it.

Jorge Loweree, the managing director of programs and strategy at the American Immigration Council, suggests that advocating for stricter immigration policies is often easier than demanding a fairer and more just process for non-U.S. citizens. By playing on people's fears, he explains, it becomes challenging to reverse their mindset.

In the past, the Senate approved bills in 2006 and 2013 that would have enhanced border enforcement and provided a pathway to citizenship for approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants. Unfortunately, these bills failed to progress in the Republican-controlled House. In 2018, there seemed to be a moment of potential progress when Trump invited members from both parties to the White House. He expressed openness to comprehensive immigration reform and creating a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers. However, the compromise ultimately faced Trump's unexpected opposition, which led to its demise.

The recent immigration proposal tilted more towards Republicans than the one offered in 2018, omitting the usual pathways to citizenship while implementing measures to expedite asylum claims. The bill also aimed to make it more difficult for migrants to seek protection based on fears of persecution in their home countries. Moreover, it planned to facilitate the expulsion of migrants at the border and introduce new emergency authority for summary deportations under specific conditions.

Democrats saw the inclusion of billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine as a significant win to counter Russia's invasion. However, progressives criticized the proposal, while the conservative U.S. Border Patrol union endorsed it. Even before the bill's text was released, Trump began lobbying senators to oppose it, stating his intention to deprive President Biden of a victory before the upcoming elections.

Public polls indicate that immigration remains one of Trump's strongest issues against President Biden, with Republicans accusing Biden of deliberately allowing migrants to cross the border. Therefore, rather than citing electoral prospects, Republicans who opposed the bill falsely claimed it would grant "amnesty" to undocumented immigrants. Ultimately, the Ukraine-border bill faced a filibuster and did not pass.

It's worth noting that Senator James Lankford, the lead Republican negotiator, openly expressed the dynamics among his colleagues, highlighting their loyalty to Trump. However, Senator Lindsey Graham believes that the complexity of the immigration issue itself, rather than Trump's interference, is what hinders compromise.

The politics of immigration have not shifted to the right without cause. In 2023, over two-and-a-half million migrants arrived at the southern border, the highest number to date. Additionally, for the first time, a majority of these migrants came from countries other than Mexico and northern Central America, with a notable increase in family arrivals.