In a surprising turn of events, consumer confidence continues to plummet despite a substantial jump in economic output for the third quarter of this year. The latest government data indicates a remarkable 4.9% gain in real GDP, adjusted for inflation, from the previous quarter. This growth rate, although not unprecedented, is nearly twice the normal rate seen during ordinary times of economic expansion.

The fact that the economy has defied expectations of a recession, which many economists predicted a few months ago, is a cause for celebration. Consumers are still actively spending, with their "excess savings" accumulated during the COVID-19 downturn seemingly untouched. Even the housing market, which was dampened by surging interest rates, is displaying signs of resurgence.

However, despite these positive indicators, consumer confidence levels have taken a sharp dive according to the latest consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan. Confidence is now comparable to levels observed during the Great Recession, a time when the value of assets such as stock portfolios and homes were plummeting, and millions of workers were losing their jobs. Surprisingly, confidence is even lower now than it was in April 2020, when the nation was in the throes of the pandemic with daily deaths and widespread shutdowns. Other confidence measures paint a similarly bleak picture.

One apparent cause for this declining confidence is the specter of inflation. Although the inflation rate has significantly decreased from its high of 9% earlier this year to 3.7% presently, consumer sentiment remains pessimistic and has worsened for the past three months. It seems as if consumers believe inflation is worsening rather than improving.

Attempts to understand and explain this prevailing sense of gloom among consumers have yielded insufficient answers. While economists and pollsters try to decipher what is on consumers' minds, it is evident that they can feel disheartened for a multitude of reasons. One potential influencing factor might be the recent Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7, which cast a shadow of anxiety on global affairs.

President Biden, despite receiving praise for his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, is struggling to boost his approval ratings which have remained stagnant around 40%. He continues to highlight the positive aspects of the economy, sharing a chart on social media depicting the soaring GDP under his administration's economic policies. The White House consistently sends out memos extolling the successes of "Bidenomics in action," emphasizing the decrease in inflation, the resilience of the job market, and the failure of recession predictions.

While it is uncertain what exactly will sway voters in the face of tremendous economic growth, it is noteworthy that a relatively unknown member of Congress, Dean Phillips, has announced his intentions to run against President Biden in next year's presidential primaries. Phillips, while praising Biden's record and aligning with him on numerous issues, expresses concern over the president's struggle to connect with voters, particularly those who are significantly younger than him.

While it remains unlikely that Phillips will pose a serious threat to Biden's presidency, the fact that an incumbent president is facing challenges from within his own party raises questions about his ability to resonate with a diverse electorate. If impressive economic news fails to sway voter sentiment, it becomes increasingly difficult to gauge what will capture their attention and support.