In the latest national NBC News poll, former President Donald Trump is leading current President Joe Biden by a margin of 47% to 42% among registered voters in a hypothetical general-election matchup. However, a different scenario emerges when voters are asked about their ballot choice if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year. In that case, Biden narrowly pulls ahead, leading Trump by 45% to 43%.

The survey highlights significant shifts among certain voter groups who initially supported Biden strongly in the 2020 election, but now appear to be wavering. Younger voters, Latinos, and independent voters have shown notable changes in their preferred candidate. On the original ballot, Biden and Trump are tied at 42% each among voters aged 18 to 34. However, when these young voters are asked about their choice if Trump is convicted, Biden gains a 15-point advantage, with 47% supporting him compared to 32% for Trump.

Similar shifts occur among Latino voters, who initially had Trump at 42% and Biden at 41% on the first ballot. But when asked about their preference in the event of Trump's conviction, Biden gains an edge at 45%, while Trump trails at 35%. Independent voters also demonstrate a significant change, moving from a 19-point lead for Trump on the initial ballot to a narrower 8-point advantage on the second hypothetical question.

Highlighted by these shifts, particularly among independents, the poll results show a dramatic change. However, it remains uncertain how these hypothetical scenarios would translate into real-life outcomes. Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who is part of the bipartisan group of pollsters conducting the NBC News survey, cautions that the small subset of voters who shifted their preference on the conviction question—only 55 out of 1,000 interviews—already hold predominantly negative views about Biden. Additionally, they strongly prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by over 60 points. McInturff raises doubts about whether these voters would genuinely stick with Biden even if Trump were to be convicted of a felony.

The NBC News poll was conducted from January 26th to 30th, involving 1,000 registered voters, with 867 respondents reached via cellphones. The overall margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

While these hypothetical scenarios offer insights into voters' perceptions, it is crucial to remember that election outcomes are shaped by a myriad of factors that extend beyond these theoretical situations. As the political landscape continues to evolve, it is essential to track voter sentiment and consider the various dynamics that will influence future elections.