The Red Sea has become an arena for power politics, with African and Arab nations clashing over strategic interests and influence in the region. This ongoing struggle has created a landscape of hope and horror, leaving the peoples of the Red Sea Arena in a precarious situation.

The Arab Gulf kingdoms view the Horn of Africa as a crucial perimeter for minimizing political threats and suppressing democracy movements. With the anticipation of a post-carbon and food insecure world, these Gulf states aim to secure rich farmlands and establish African client states aligned with their interests.

The consequences of this power struggle are concerning for the Horn of Africa, where existential crises including war, dictatorship, and famine have led to state collapse. The African Union's peace and security system is unraveling, and the United Nations' role in peacemaking has been reduced to humanitarian aid provision.

Recent events have further highlighted the dangers. Ethiopia's surprise agreement with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, in which it promises recognition in exchange for a leased stretch of land including a seaport, has strained relations with Somalia. The deal, suspected of being influenced by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has raised fears of new conflicts in the region.

While the United States is preoccupied with the Israel-Gaza conflict and tensions with Iran, the Red Sea's importance as a crucial trade route cannot be ignored. The Red Sea carries 12 percent of world seaborne trade, and any disruption to this vital shipping lane would have severe economic consequences for trade between Europe and Asia.

Efforts to combat piracy in the region have shifted from naval missions to onshore diplomacy and economic assistance. Saudi Arabia chairs the Red Sea Forum, focusing on piracy, smuggling, and marine resources rather than political issues.

Six years ago, the concept of a diplomatic forum, known as the Red Sea Arena, was introduced to include all countries with vital interests in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The goal was to establish joint mechanisms for cooperation and promote stability in the region. However, Arabian Gulf states are becoming increasingly assertive in the Horn of Africa, utilizing aggressive transactional politics and funding proxies in conflicts.

The United Arab Emirates, in particular, has emerged as a key player in the region. Through its use of proxies and support for separatists, the UAE has positioned itself as a kingmaker in the Horn of Africa. Its strategic goals in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, however, remain unclear.

Despite these power struggles, the African Union, United Nations, and regional organizations have been slow to respond effectively. The AU's founding principles of democracy, good governance, and inclusivity have given way to short-term transactionalism. Meanwhile, Western foreign ministries have deprioritized the Horn of Africa and Yemen, leaving the region vulnerable to Gulf power-brokering.

In the face of these challenges, the United States had recognized the need for a broad diplomatic strategy for the Red Sea Arena. However, its efforts have been insufficient, and opportunities for leadership have been missed. The onus now falls on Africa and the United Nations to lead and create a consensus that involves other global powers in a stable and cooperative Red Sea Arena.

As power dynamics continue to shift and tensions rise, the peoples of the Red Sea Arena remain caught in the crossfire. The future of the region hangs in the balance, calling for urgent and coordinated international efforts to mitigate conflicts and promote stability in this critical part of the world.