In a recent nationwide poll conducted by Suffolk University/USA Today, former President Donald Trump appears to have a commanding lead among Republicans and is even out-polling President Joe Biden among key demographic groups that played a significant role in Biden's victory in the 2020 election.

The survey, conducted among 1,000 likely voters via landline and cell phones between Christmas and New Year's Eve, highlights concerns for President Biden as his support among crucial voting blocs shows signs of weakening. Notably, the report reveals a slip in Biden's support among Black voters, dropping from over 90% in 2020 to just 63% considering voting for him again in 2024.

Furthermore, the poll indicates a reversal in Biden's support among Hispanic voters, with Trump now leading by five points, 39% to 34%. In the 2020 election, Biden held a significant advantage among Hispanic identifying voters, winning by a 2:1 margin. Similarly, Biden's lead among surveyed voters under the age of 35 has disappeared, with Trump now edging him out by four points, 37% to 33%.

The poll suggests that the decreased support for Biden within these demographic groups may not necessarily translate into a gain for Trump. Instead, it appears that some likely voters are expressing interest in alternative options. In fact, when a third-party candidate's name is not mentioned, 16% of those polled indicate they would consider voting for someone other than Trump or Biden. This shift in support away from Biden is seen as a potential advantage for Trump.

David Paleologos, director of Suffolk's Political Research Center, explained, "Although Trump hasn't gained support among Black voters, he has reduced the deficit because third-party voters are now moving away from Biden's support among Blacks. A young voter or a person of color voting 'third party' is essentially a vote against President Biden and in favor of Donald Trump."

In a head-to-head match without third party candidates mentioned, Trump holds a 2% lead over Biden. However, when third-party candidates are taken into account, Trump's lead increases to 3%. It is important to note that Trump's appearance as a candidate in the November general election is not guaranteed, as the outcome will ultimately depend on future polling and primary results.

The poll also sheds light on the intra-party dynamics of the Republican primary race. Trump's lead over his closest competitor, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, stands at an impressive 49 points, with 62% of respondents indicating they would choose Trump compared to just 13% for Haley.

While Trump has maintained a consistent lead throughout the primary cycle, other candidates like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have seen their polling numbers decline in recent months. According to the Suffolk poll, DeSantis stands at 10%, while Christie and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy average less than 5% nationally.

One potential challenge for Trump's primary campaign comes from New Hampshire, where the first ballots are set to be cast on January 23. Recent surveys suggest that Nikki Haley may be only three points behind Trump in the Granite State.

As the electorate gears up for the upcoming elections, the Suffolk University/USA Today poll indicates potential vulnerabilities for President Biden among key voter groups that were instrumental to his victory in 2020. While Trump leads the field among Republicans, the emergence of third-party options demonstrates the ever-evolving landscape of American politics. The primary race promises to be a closely watched and pivotal event as candidates vie for their party's nomination.