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The international community is anxiously anticipating President-elect Donald Trump's potential move to once more withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement, a decision that could come faster and with fewer hindrances than before. Trump's promise to exit the agreement would again leave the U.S. as one of the few nations not participating in the 2015 accord, where nearly 200 governments have committed to making non-binding pledges aimed at reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.

Trump's recent election victory looms large over the upcoming COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, starting Monday. Delegates will be discussing crucial matters such as phasing down fossil fuels and providing climate aid to poorer countries. The absence of the United States from the agreement would compel other nations to shoulder a larger burden in reducing climate pollution, while raising doubts about the commitment levels of other countries in the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter's absence.

"Countries are very committed to Paris, I don't think there's any question about that. What I do think is at risk is whether the world is able to follow through on what it committed to in Paris," said David Waskow, head of the World Resources Institute's international climate initiative.

Trump has remained unwavering in his stance on climate change, calling it "all a big hoax" as recently as last weekend. This contradicts extensive data and forecasts indicating that 2024 might become the warmest year on record, precipitating concerns about his possible actions upon taking office. He could file an official request with the U.N. to withdraw from the Paris agreement come January, which, under the terms of the pact, would take a year to take effect—shorter than the three-year timeframe it took during his previous administration.

According to analysts, during this period, the Trump administration could neglect the existing U.S. climate commitments established by President Joe Biden and refuse to submit any new plans to further reduce carbon emissions. In an even more drastic measure, some conservatives have proposed removing the United States from the 1992 U.N. treaty that underpins the annual global climate negotiations, potentially delivering a severe blow to global climate efforts.

The ramifications of a U.S. withdrawal extend beyond environmental concerns. Jonathan Pershing, a former special envoy for climate change during the Obama administration, emphasized that such a move could sideline the U.S. from international clean energy discussions, thereby boosting China's influence in the green technology sector, including solar panels and electric vehicles.

"The U.S. was a key architect of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which mandates 195 countries to submit national plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and provide updates on their progress," said Pershing. "With the U.S. out, China will step up, but in a very different way."

Since the Paris Agreement's inception, global climate pollution has continued to rise, albeit at a slower rate than it might have otherwise. The need for climate finance has grown significantly due to increasingly severe disasters worldwide. In response to Trump's initial withdrawal announcement, there were concerns that other nations might follow suit—an eventuality that now seems less likely, given the current stage of the agreement.

President Joe Biden reentered the Paris Agreement in 2021 and pledged to cut U.S. emissions in half by 2030 from 2005 levels. While progress has been made, the pace of reductions is not sufficient to meet Biden's target without stronger federal interventions. The obligations under the agreement require nations to submit new plans by mid-February next year. The absence of a commitment from the world's largest economy could embolden opponents of stringent climate action in countries like China, India, and parts of Europe.

The upcoming COP29 summit will serve as a significant test of international resolve to the Paris Agreement. Discussions are expected to focus on setting a new target for global climate aid, potentially reaching up to $1 trillion annually. Participants will include Biden administration officials, but the looming possibility of Trump's future presidency might affect other countries' willingness to step up their contributions.