Weather Update: Subtropical Storm Patty Nears Azores, Caribbean Monitored for Tropical Development

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ICARO Media Group
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03/11/2024 18h20

### Subtropical Storm Patty Near Azores; Caribbean Monitored for Tropical Development

As of the early hours of November 3, Subtropical Storm Patty has been identified approximately 125 miles southeast of Lajes Air Base in the Azores, situated at latitude 37.5N and longitude 25.5W. Patty is presently moving eastward at a speed of 18 mph, and it is forecasted to continue this eastward to east-northeastward trajectory over the next few days. The storm's maximum sustained winds are recorded at 50 mph, with occasional stronger gusts.

Forecast predictions indicate that Patty's center will track near the southeastern Azores over several hours. However, meteorologists anticipate that the storm will weaken in the coming days, transitioning into a post-tropical low either later today or early Monday. The storm's impact extends outward with winds reaching 40 mph up to 175 miles, primarily to the south and southwest. Residents in parts of the Azores can expect tropical storm conditions and rainfall amounts between 1 to 2 inches through Sunday. The generated swells are also predicted to create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Meanwhile, in the Caribbean, forecasters are keeping a close watch on Invest 97L, which is currently associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. With favorable warm waters, AccuWeather suggests that a tropical storm might develop by Monday night. The system is expected to take a northeastward turn, impacting Jamaica and Cuba with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. There is also the potential for it to escalate into a hurricane before reaching these islands.

The future path of Invest 97L remains uncertain and depends largely on the movement of a jet stream dip over the U.S. next week. This dip could influence whether the tropical feature moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and potentially towards South Florida, or if it veers towards the western or central Gulf of Mexico affecting areas as far as Louisiana or Texas. Another possibility is that the system continues westward, eventually dissipating over southern Mexico.

At present, the National Hurricane Center has given Invest 97L an 80 percent chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance over the next week. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. Regardless of its development, regions including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba should anticipate locally heavy rains.

Moreover, a nearby system situated east of the southeastern Bahamas is also under observation. This system, exhibiting disorganized showers and gusty winds, could see slow development as it moves westward. However, it is expected to merge with Invest 97L, decreasing its chances of individual development. Current formation chances for this system remain at a low 10 percent over the next 48 hours and through the next week.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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