US Stocks Extend Winning Streak as Investors Await Fed Chair's Speech at Jackson Hole
ICARO Media Group
US stocks continued their upward momentum on Monday, building on last week's strong gains and establishing the S&P 500's longest winning streak of the year. Investors eagerly anticipate a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week, which could shape expectations for future interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 rose by more than 0.5%, on track for its eighth consecutive daily win, while the Nasdaq Composite also registered its eighth straight session gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by over 200 points, driven by renewed confidence in a "soft landing" for the economy.
Last week's rally helped recover the losses incurred during an early August sell-off, where concerns about a potential recession unsettled Wall Street. However, encouraging inflation and consumer spending data have since eased those worries. As a measure of stability returns to the market, traders are shifting their focus to Powell's upcoming speech, expecting clarity on the extent of future rate cuts. Goldman Sachs now sees a decreased likelihood of a recession, raising the question for investors of not whether, but by how much, the Fed will lower interest rates in September.
Traders currently project a 72% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the next Fed meeting, with a 28% chance of a more significant 0.50% cut. However, the release of minutes from the Fed's July meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, could impact these predictions. Amidst this anticipation, market participants will also keep a close eye on the Democratic National Convention, which commenced on Monday. The convention may provide further insight into what investors can expect from presidential nominee Kamala Harris and her policies.
In the stock market, all sectors of the S&P 500 index enjoyed gains on Monday. Energy stocks led the way with an increase of 0.8%, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors. Technology shares underperformed slightly, rising by 0.2% compared to the broader market's 0.3% growth. The positive sentiment carried over to other major indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising approximately 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.3%.
In corporate news, Boeing's newly appointed CEO, Kelly Ortberg, faces a significant challenge as industry veteran Bill George suggests that it may take up to a decade for the aircraft manufacturer to recover fully. Ortberg will need to steer the company towards a new direction after what George considers to be 20 years of being on the wrong track. The culture of Boeing, according to George, needs to be refocused on aviation to regain success.
In another development, the number of S&P 500 companies discussing a potential recession during their earnings calls has dropped to near three-year lows. Only 28 companies mentioned a recession from June 15 to August 15, compared to the five-year average of 83 and the ten-year average of 60. Analysts interpret this as a sign of management confidence in the current and near-future earnings potential.
Investors also observed a slight pause in the surge of gold prices on Monday after the precious metal reached all-time highs driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut. Spot gold retreated slightly after surpassing $2,500 per ounce last week, while gold futures fell 0.2% to hover around $2,530 per ounce. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the anticipation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve have fueled the rally in gold prices, along with continued gold reserve accumulation by central banks.
As the countdown to Powell's speech at Jackson Hole begins, US stocks held steady on Monday, positioning themselves for further insights into the state of the consumer with a slew of retail earnings reports scheduled for this week. Lowe's, Target, Macy's, The TJX Companies, and BJ's Wholesale Club are among the companies expected to provide valuable information on consumer health. Additionally, the Democratic National Convention will offer a glimpse into Kamala Harris' platform, contributing to the overall market sentiment.