Unveiling the Volatility of Bitcoin: Nakamoto's Billionaire Status and Speculative Future

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ICARO Media Group
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14/10/2024 22h50

**Bitcoin's Volatility Disqualifies It as a Stable Currency**

Bitcoin enthusiasts have long speculated about the true identity of "Satoshi Nakamoto," the mysterious creator of the cryptocurrency. Cullen Hoback, the creator of the HBO documentary "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery," proposes that Nakamoto might be a Canadian named Peter Todd. However, Hoback himself admits he's not certain. What truly matters is Hoback's observation that, if Nakamoto indeed holds a personal stash of one million bitcoins, this individual is already a multi-billionaire and could potentially become a trillionaire.

This speculation about Nakamoto's wealth highlights a fundamental issue with bitcoin: its extreme volatility. The very reason bitcoin and Nakamoto capture headlines is the same reason bitcoin fails to be a practical medium of exchange. As argued in the 2022 book "The Money Confusion: How Illiteracy About Currencies and Inflation Sets the Stage for the Crypto Revolution," money should be a stable measure to facilitate the exchange of wealth. When the value of money itself becomes the story, it ceases to function as money.

Bitcoin's instability is apparent when considering its fluctuating value over recent years. If "Nakamoto" is worth $65 billion today but was only worth $16 billion in 2022, $61 billion in 2021, $10 billion in 2020, and a mere $4 billion in 2018, it becomes clear that the cryptocurrency's value is highly unpredictable. This volatility undermines bitcoin as a practical alternative to stable government currencies like the dollar, pound, euro, and yen, even considering these currencies' own issues with instability.

The rapid and dramatic changes in bitcoin's value make everyday transactions highly risky. Unlike stable currencies, where value changes minimally, using bitcoin for transactions means one might be winning big or losing significantly, detracting from its role as a medium for mutually beneficial exchange. The high risks attached to trading with bitcoin make it an unreliable currency, as potential buyers and sellers face extreme volatility.

Looking to the future, Hoback speculates that Nakamoto's bitcoins might eventually make him the world's wealthiest individual. However, this speculation simply reinforces bitcoin's status as a speculative asset rather than a stable currency. It is worth questioning who would borrow or lend bitcoins under such volatile conditions. Borrowing bitcoins that are set to soar could be disastrous, and lending bitcoins that might plummet involves equal risk.

In conclusion, bitcoin's supposed strength—its limited and fixed supply—proves to be its main weakness. The resulting volatility ensures that bitcoin remains a speculative asset, unsuitable for the stable role of money.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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