As winter weather systems persist in the midst of astronomical spring, forecast models are grappling with the unpredictability of two approaching storm systems heading towards the Upper Midwest. The first system, a Clipper-type, is expected to bring light snow to western Minnesota by midday Thursday, expanding eastward towards the greater Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota by Thursday night. However, forecast models are showing conflicting data regarding the heaviest snowfall potential.

According to the European model (ECMWF), a band of 1 to 3 inches of snow is likely to occur along and around the I-94 corridor between Fargo and the Twin Cities. On the other hand, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model suggests heavier snowfall, possibly reaching 6 inches or more in certain locations. However, the GFS model is currently considered an outlier on the higher end of snowfall estimates.

With both systems, forecasters caution that track changes are possible, leading to adjustments in snowfall location and magnitude. The current forecast, 48 hours prior to the expected snowfall, only carries a medium level of confidence due to the wide range of forecast models and output.

The second system presents an even greater challenge, characterized as a Colorado low with access to abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This complex system introduces further uncertainty, as forecast models differ on the eventual storm track and temperature profile. Some models suggest snowfall for parts of Minnesota, while others indicate a transition from snow to rain for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.

Described as a wet and messy system, the precipitation produced by this second storm would be welcomed by drought-stricken Minnesota and Iowa in any form. However, due to the contradictory forecast models and the system's early stage, predicting the precise outcome is nearly impossible.

While some forecast models indicate the potential for significant snowfall, it is too early to confirm these apocalyptic totals. Forecasters remain cautious and anticipate notable changes in the coming days.

As the Upper Midwest braces for these approaching storm systems, residents and travelers are advised to stay updated with the latest forecasts and be prepared for varying levels of snow and rain. The wide range of forecast models highlights the need for flexibility and adaptability in response to rapidly changing weather conditions.