Unprecedented Hurricane Season Baffles Experts with Erratic Activity and Record-Breaking Events

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30/11/2024 15h46

**Unprecedented Hurricane Season Leaves Experts Stunned**

As the hurricane season comes to its official close, meteorologists are reflecting on what has been a particularly perplexing and destructive few months. The season defied expectations, leaving experts more puzzled than ever before.

Renowned meteorologist Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University, who specializes in Atlantic hurricane forecasts, admitted to being especially baffled this year. "Every year there's one or two things that make me scratch my head, and this year I was doing more head-scratching than normal," Klotzbach remarked.

Forecasters had anticipated a hyperactive hurricane season as early as April, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issuing its most alarmist forecast to date. When all was said and done, the season produced 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. Although these numbers are at the lower end of expectations, they still classify as an "extremely active" season.

What left researchers particularly confounded was the erratic nature of this year's hurricane activity. The season started with a bang as Hurricane Beryl became the first Category 5 storm in the Atlantic in June. However, an unusual lull followed from mid-August to early September—traditionally the peak period for hurricanes. This unexpected quiet period marked the first time since 1968 that not a single named storm developed during these critical weeks. Just as experts were beginning to doubt their forecasts, the activity surged back to life with Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which inflicted billions of dollars in damage.

Discussing the unpredictable pattern, Klotzbach stated, "It took your normal seasonal cycle and turned it on its head. It went from nothing to Helene and a bunch of storms in the east Atlantic and Milton."

The bizarre sequence of events has prompted researchers to delve deeper into the factors that influence hurricane formation. Several key elements that were predicted to contribute to an active season included record high ocean temperatures and the potential onset of La Niña, known for its atmospheric instability which fuels hurricanes. While ocean temperatures indeed remained high, La Niña did not manifest strongly, according to Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane forecaster.

Other influences, such as Africa's tropical monsoon season shifting northwards and the Madden Julian oscillation affecting early September storm development, are also under scrutiny. The altered monsoon brought unprecedented rains to areas that hadn't seen precipitation in 45 years, thereby stifling hurricane formation during the usual peak period.

Despite the midseason lull, the 2024 hurricane season still set several records. Five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., matching the second-highest number in history. Notably, Hurricane Helene was the most powerful hurricane ever to strike Florida's Big Bend, and a record seven hurricanes formed in the Atlantic after September 25.

Hurricane Milton alone set new benchmarks, triggering the most tornado warnings in Florida and generating numerous tornadoes. Scientists examining the impact of climate change noted that both Helene and Milton underwent rapid intensification, a phenomenon driven by rising global temperatures. Intense rainfall and stronger wind speeds during these hurricanes were directly linked to human-caused global warming.

Research indicates that while climate change might not increase the number of named storms, it is expected to result in a higher proportion of intense hurricanes, as evidenced this season. Every one of the 11 Atlantic hurricanes this year was intensified by additional wind speeds of 9 to 28 mph due to record ocean warmth caused by climate change.

The hurricane season may have ended, but the quest for understanding the unusual patterns observed this year has only just begun. As researchers continue to analyze these anomalies, they aim to enhance future forecasts and preparedness for such unprecedented weather events.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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