In a significant blow to the UK government's plans to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, the House of Lords voted on Wednesday to reinstate amendments to a bill that had previously been rejected by the House of Commons. The upper house, supported by opposition Labour and cross-bench peers, as well as some rebel Conservatives, proposed 10 changes to the Safety of Rwanda Bill earlier this month. However, these proposed alterations were all dismissed by legislators in the Commons on Monday.

The latest decision by the Lords to reintroduce some of the original amendments presents Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with a race against time to fulfill his commitment of initiating the process of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda before June. The government argues that this initiative aims to dissuade migrants from attempting to cross the English Channel, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, to reach the UK. Last year, a total of 29,437 individuals, including many from Afghanistan and Syria, crossed the Channel in small boats, with most seeking asylum in the UK.

Sunak, who assumed office in October 2022, has made it a priority to curb these arrivals by adhering to the Conservative Party's pledge to "stop the boats." This strategy involves deporting some asylum seekers from the UK to Rwanda, where their asylum applications would be processed. Under this scheme, successful applicants would be granted asylum status and allowed to remain in Rwanda, while those who are unsuccessful would have the option to seek asylum in another "safe third country." It is important to note that no one seeking asylum in Rwanda would be eligible to apply for resettlement in the UK.

The government's attempts to pass legislation enabling deportations to Rwanda have been plagued by controversy and delays. In November of last year, the UK's Supreme Court ruled that Rwanda was not a safe country for asylum seekers, effectively derailing the legislation. In response, Sunak introduced the "Safety of Rwanda" bill in December, which was approved by the Commons despite the Supreme Court ruling. If agreed upon by the House of Lords, this bill would effectively circumvent the Supreme Court's decision.

The UK has already paid Rwanda £240 million ($304 million) as part of a five-year relocation deal, which is estimated to cost the government at least £370 million ($470 million) in total. However, thus far, no individuals have been sent to Rwanda. The country has a painful history, having experienced a brutal civil war from 1990 to 1994, culminating in the Rwandan genocide, during which an estimated 800,000 minority Tutsis and some moderate Hutus were killed.

Opponents of the bill in the House of Lords have been highly critical. Lord Alex Carlile voiced concerns over the safety of Rwanda, comparing the costs of sending asylum seekers there to staying at a luxurious hotel in Paris. Conservative peer Lord Tugendhat drew parallels between the government's assertions about Rwanda's safety and the actions of the ruling party in George Orwell's novel, 1984. Labour's Lord David Blunkett labeled the bill as "shoddy and undeserving of the country."

On the other hand, supporters of Sunak's scheme in the Lords have openly defended the government's position. Former Conservative Party leader Lord Michael Howard criticized the Supreme Court's ruling, arguing that it encroached on the executive's authority.

Following Monday's vote in the House of Commons, where Conservative MPs voted down all proposed changes, the bill will now enter a parliamentary process known as "ping-pong," where the Commons and Lords negotiate the final wording. Given that the House of Commons is set to begin its Easter recess on March 26, it is likely that a vote on the bill will occur after its return on April 15. Whether Sunak will have enough time to initiate deportation flights before mid-year remains uncertain, as both parliamentary bodies continue to stand their ground.

The Labour party has already pledged to scrap the Rwanda plans if they come to power, with a general election expected to take place later this year.