Former President Donald Trump's media startup, Trump Media & Technology Group, made a sensational stock market debut on March 26, under the ticker symbol DJT. The value of the company skyrocketed, with the stock surging over 40% on its first day of trading. This surge in stock price indicates a potential windfall for Trump, as his ownership stake could be worth more than $4 billion.

DJT has gained attention as a meme stock, attracting investor interest beyond what the company's financial fundamentals would typically suggest. This strong interest can be attributed to Trump's notoriety and the fervent belief some supporters have in his "make America great again" crusade.

However, despite the remarkable market performance, Trump's media company has little revenue and has incurred losses of $41 million over the past two years, according to S&P Capital IQ. Many buyers driving up the stock price are individual investors expressing loyalty to Trump himself.

There are mixed opinions on the future prospects of the Trump venture. Some investors are betting on its success, while others anticipate a significant decline in the stock price in the short term. Short interest in DJT stock, which represents bets on the price falling, stands at around 11% of outstanding shares, which is relatively high compared to the average short interest of public companies.

Despite significant short interest, there are very few DJT shares available for short trades, making it expensive to bet against the stock. This limited availability of shares further reinforces negative views on the company's prospects. However, there are indications that some buyers are banking on a potential bubble and plan to sell before it bursts.

The Trump company's main business, the Truth Social networking app, is considered a niche player with no apparent competitive advantage over established platforms such as Twitter and Facebook, except for Trump's divisive appeal. This poses a risk to the company's success in the long run.

Additionally, Trump’s own financial stake in the company raises concerns. He owns at least 55% of DJT, and his stake surged by over $1 billion when the company went public. Trump may have an incentive to sell shares to settle his legal fees associated with ongoing criminal and civil cases. While he must wait six months before selling any shares, the company board, composed of Trump's allies and his son, Donald Jr., could potentially waive this rule.

If Trump were to sell shares or if there is speculation that he might do so, it could put downward pressure on the stock price. The stock already reacts to news related to Trump's personal finances, as seen when shares jumped nearly 20% on a court decision regarding a civil conviction for business fraud.

Furthermore, a third risk for the Trump company is the possibility of Trump losing the 2024 presidential election to incumbent President Joe Biden. A second defeat would leave little political future for Trump, potentially diminishing the appeal and relevance of Truth Social as a platform for his supporters.

While Trump's media startup has made a remarkable market debut, there are valid concerns about its long-term viability and potential risks associated with Trump's personal financial situation. As the company evolves, investors and market watchers will closely monitor its performance and the impact of external factors on its stock price.