In what is expected to be a crucial moment for the Republican presidential nomination race, Super Tuesday on March 5 will see 15 states holding their nominating contests. With a staggering 854 delegates up for grabs, this day could play a significant role in determining the party's nominee.

Former President Donald Trump, with his commanding lead in the polls, is likely to emerge from Super Tuesday with a near mathematical lock on the nomination, which could be clinched as early as March 12. However, amidst this backdrop, some contests hold a glimmer of hope for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

According to polling averages calculated by 538, Trump holds a substantial lead over Haley in six of the 15 states voting on Tuesday: California, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. Trump's advantage is at least 37 percentage points in each of these states, with even higher leads in Alabama, Maine, Minnesota, and Oklahoma.

The polling data, however, might not provide the most reliable picture of the Super Tuesday states. The lack of recent polling in these states means that perceptions are based on outdated data. Additionally, the polls may not accurately reflect the dynamics of the race, as primary polling tends to have a higher margin of error compared to general election polling.

Haley, facing an uphill battle, has seen some support among independents, college graduates, and voters who don't identify as white born-again Christians. While her struggles among self-identified Republicans make it difficult for her to secure victory anywhere on Super Tuesday, she may have a better chance in more highly educated and less religious states that permit non-Republicans to vote.

Trump is expected to perform well in the South, particularly in states like Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, which have a white population with lower college education levels and a higher share of white evangelical Christians. Texas and North Carolina, with sizable white non-college graduate populations and significant portions of voters identifying as evangelical Christians, are also anticipated to favor Trump.

California, Minnesota, Alaska, and Utah are likely to lean in Trump's favor, with closed primaries in place, ensuring that the majority of primary voters will be Republicans. Maine, while not fitting a clear pattern, is projected to be a solid win for Trump, given its demographics and past successes for Trump-supporting candidates.

On the flip side, Colorado, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia are likely to be Trump's weakest states. Although he is expected to carry all four, each state presents features that could provide an opportunity for Haley to gain ground. These states have fewer white evangelical Christians, making their primary electorates more moderate. Additionally, they allow for non-Republicans to vote and have a substantial share of white college-educated voters.

While the polls suggest a Super Tuesday sweep for Trump, it remains to be seen if they accurately reflect the current sentiment on the ground. Regardless, Haley faces an uphill battle, with her chances of securing the nomination becoming increasingly untenable.

As Super Tuesday approaches, all eyes will be on the outcomes of these crucial contests, shaping the trajectory of the Republican presidential nomination race.