A potential tropical storm or hurricane is brewing in the Caribbean, with increasing signs of the conditions aligning for significant tropical activity in the region. The National Hurricane Center has identified medium odds of tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico within the next seven days. Computer forecast models suggest the formation of a strong storm by the end of next week, although there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the predictions. The FOX Forecast Center notes that the odds of tropical development have been steadily rising over the past week, and there is a possibility of further progression beyond the initial seven days approaching. Fox Weather Meteorologist Stephen Morgan emphasized that the entire Gulf Coast, spanning from Texas to Florida, could be impacted by the evolving weather system.

One of the critical elements that could come into play is the formation of a weather pattern known as the Central American Gyre. This expansive area of low pressure, fuelled by moisture from the Pacific Ocean, typically emerges over Central America and can produce heavy rainfall, leading to flooding and landslides across multiple countries in the region. While the Gyre predominantly brings rain to Central America, the convergence of favorable conditions may give rise to organized low-pressure areas within the system, potentially developing into tropical storms or hurricanes. With Caribbean water temperatures currently nearing record-warm levels, the stage is set for the potential intensification of any system that emerges within the Gyre.

Various scenarios are being considered regarding the forecast, each presenting different levels of threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast. The way in which the gyre forms, its strength, and the atmospheric steering patterns in the southern United States will determine the trajectory of the developing weather system. The least impactful scenario could see the broad low-pressure area delivering heavy rain to Central America, without individual storm formation. However, if low-pressure centers materialize on the northern and western edges of the Gyre, and high pressure intensifies over the southern U.S., storms may be redirected towards Central America, posing risks of mudslides and landslides.