**Potential Tropical Storm Rafael Developing in the Caribbean: Hurricane Hunters on Standby**

A growing weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, designated as Invest 97L, is increasingly likely to evolve into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the coming days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Initially a conglomerate of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, Invest 97L is predicted to undergo gradual development as it moves over the central and western Caribbean.

The NHC has planned three Hurricane Hunter flights to investigate Invest 97L over the next two days, reflecting the urgency and potential of the disturbance. Should this system intensify into a tropical storm, it will adopt the name Rafael, following the recent naming of Subtropical Storm Patty in the northern Atlantic.

Bryan Norcross, a Hurricane Specialist with FOX Weather, notes a consensus among computer forecast models that the disturbance will either reach or near tropical storm strength by Wednesday or Thursday as it approaches the southern Gulf. A dense plume of tropical moisture associated with the storm is expected to head north, posing a flooding threat to Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico starting Monday. South Florida may also experience heightened moisture levels by midweek.

Once in the Gulf, the forecast becomes more unpredictable. Weaker steering currents could cause the system to drift westward, possibly toward the Mexican coast if it remains weak. A stronger system, on the other hand, could head north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. However, hostile atmospheric conditions, including dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds, may inhibit significant strengthening.

Norcross underscores that while a major storm impacting the U.S. appears unlikely at this point, continual monitoring is essential. Forecasts extending a week ahead are inherently uncertain, and therefore, vigilance remains necessary.

Adding another layer of complexity, the NHC is also tracking a low-pressure area near the northeastern Caribbean Sea. While it has a low probability of developing into a tropical depression over the next week, it could produce heavy tropical downpours in the northeast Caribbean islands over the next few days before likely merging with Invest 97L.

Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Patty, located approximately 300 miles west/northwest of the Azores, demonstrated sustained winds of 65 mph. According to the NHC, Patty is expected to maintain its strength through Saturday, gradually weakening and possibly transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. The remnants of Patty might eventually reach Portugal and western Spain early next week.