In the midst of a historically quiet period in the Atlantic basin, attention is now focused on a tropical disturbance that has emerged in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified this disturbance as the best candidate for development, with a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next week.

This particular disturbance initially began as a tropical wave, making its way across the Atlantic over the past week. Despite facing unfavorable conditions for development, the disturbance held on, manifesting as a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms. Currently situated near Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the wave is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday.

According to Dr. Michael Brennan, the Director of the National Hurricane Center, as the disturbance moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico, it could encounter more favorable conditions for development. Dr. Brennan stated, "We're giving out a 40% chance of development over the next week, so we could see a tropical depression form here, early to middle portions of next week. And then that could eventually become a threat to, say, somewhere along the western Gulf Coast."

Meanwhile, another disturbance, previously named Invest 90L, which has been persistently drenching the Gulf Coast, is no longer considered a threat for tropical depression formation. However, it will continue to bring heavy rainfall to the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi, eventually spreading its impact across Florida.

As for Invest 99L, a low-pressure center off the East Coast, it is becoming stronger but maintaining more traditional storm characteristics rather than displaying subtropical dynamics. This storm, while staying well offshore of the United States, is expected to generate heavy surf and dangerous rip currents along the New England coast.

In the eastern Atlantic, a trough of low pressure is being closely monitored for slow development as it ventures into the central tropical Atlantic Ocean later next week. Currently, the trough is not showing significant signs of organization.

Dr. Brennan emphasized that despite the current lull in tropical activity, the hurricane season is far from over. "The main message to people is at this point, don't pay any attention to the seasonal forecast," he warned. With a substantial portion of the hurricane season still ahead, there is a potential for shorter-fuse hurricane events in the Caribbean and the Gulf off the East coast.

As the tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico gains potential for development, residents along the western Gulf Coast are advised to stay informed and prepared for any potential impacts as the situation unfolds over the coming week.