In a recent study published in The Cryosphere, researchers from York University's Lassonde School of Engineering shed light on the future movements of Arctic sea ice and the implications for marine transportation and the environment.

The study, led by Associate Professor Neil Tandon and Postdoctoral Visitor Jamie Ward, examined whether the floating ice in the Arctic Ocean would move faster or slower in the coming decades, a crucial factor in determining the safety of marine transportation and the rate of ice cover loss.

Observational data has indicated a trend towards faster sea ice speeds, while climate models have projected a slowdown during the summer season. This contrast has raised questions about the accuracy of the model projections.

Tandon and Ward found that the mechanisms driving the ice slowdown are plausible, but they raised concerns about the timing of the slowdown. While sea ice is expected to continue to speed up for some time, a shift in dynamics is expected in the coming decades.

Sea ice poses significant hazards for marine transportation. The researchers highlighted a dramatic incident in 2017 when sea ice trapped and sunk two fishing boats in Newfoundland. Faster ice movements increase the risk for hazardous conditions.

To understand the reasons behind the acceleration of sea ice, Tandon drew an analogy with a spring's behavior. As temperatures increase and the ice thins, it becomes more malleable, similar to how a thinner metal spring can expand and contract more easily. This enhanced flexibility generates more momentum for the sea ice, leading to increased speeds.

However, Tandon emphasized that other forces come into play as the ice approaches a free drift state, where internal stresses diminish, and external factors like wind and ocean surface tilt dominate. The models indicate that changes in wind patterns and surface tilt will eventually drive a slowdown of sea ice during the summer season.

While the models agree on the occurrence of this summertime slowdown, there is disagreement regarding the timing. Some models suggest it could start within the next decade, while others project a later onset closer to the end of this century.

While a slowdown in ice drift may have some positive implications for marine transport safety, Tandon stressed that the declining sea ice cover remains a significant concern. Its impact on ecosystems, Northern Indigenous communities relying on hunting, the survival of animals in changing habitats, and the global climate are crucial considerations.

Nevertheless, Tandon described the study's findings as marginally good news, as the projected scenarios suggest that some of the worst aspects of ice cover decline may not be as severe as expected.

The research work conducted by Tandon, Ward, and their team contributes valuable insights into understanding the future dynamics of Arctic sea ice, helping policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders make informed decisions regarding maritime activities and ecological preservation.

The study was published in The Cryosphere and can be accessed for further information.