In a rare occurrence, a high-risk outlook for severe weather has been issued for parts of the Great Plains, marking the first time since the 2010s. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has warned of a busy few days ahead, with dozens of tornadoes expected to erupt by midweek.

The high-risk area includes much of Oklahoma and southern Kansas, encompassing cities such as Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Wichita. The warning coordination meteorologist for NWS/Norman, Rick Smith, emphasized the potential severity of the storms, stating that if a storm is encountered, it is likely to be very dangerous. Smith also warned that the tornado potential would increase after dark.

Recent weeks have seen multiple rounds of twisters battering the Plains, resulting in the loss of at least seven lives and causing significant damage amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars. Oklahoma experienced its second-highest tornado total for the month of April, with 36 tornadoes recorded, surpassed only by the record of 44 tornadoes in April 2012.

The setup for this outbreak is ominous, with key ingredients rapidly coming together. Warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico is colliding with cold upper-level air, creating extreme instability across Oklahoma. The clash of surface and upper-level winds also generates ample wind shear, which is favorable for tornadic supercells that can produce large-sized hail. The initial storms are expected to form along a dry line pushing into the high-risk region by late afternoon.

Of particular concern is the extreme upper-level diffluence projected as the nose of the jet stream enters Oklahoma. This configuration, characterized by a strong negative tilt in the upper-level trough, is known to be associated with major tornado outbreaks in the United States. The diverging jet stream winds across the high-risk area make it easier for thunderstorm updrafts to develop, while the contrasting wind directions at different altitudes minimize the interference between storms, increasing the likelihood of individual tornado-producing supercells that can persist for hours into the night.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued outlooks for the next few days, with the main threat on Tuesday being clusters of severe storms impacting the Ohio Valley. Wednesday is expected to bring another strong upper-level impulse, leading to a potential reload of severe weather across an expansive area from Arkansas to the Ohio Valley, including the possibility of strong tornadoes.

It is important to note that the terms "violent tornado," "strong tornado," and "intense tornado" carry specific meanings for meteorologists based on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Only tornadoes rated as EF4 or EF5 qualify as "violent." The last EF5 tornado in the United States occurred in Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013, making it the longest gap without an EF5 tornado in modern U.S. record-keeping history.

As the central U.S. braces for these potentially devastating weather events, it is crucial for individuals and communities to stay vigilant, follow the guidance of local authorities, and take necessary precautions to ensure safety.