As tornado reports remain above average for April, the Plains region is bracing itself for another severe thunderstorm threat. The areas at risk include parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, where damaging hail, strong winds, and possible tornadoes are predicted to occur starting from Thursday.

A springtime storm system is anticipated to exit the Rockies and intensify over the Plains during the workweek, leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which could turn severe. The FOX Forecast Center has forecasted the first round of storms to develop on Thursday across the Plains. The threat is projected to shift further north and east on Friday, impacting the eastern Plains and Midwest.

Initially, the severe weather threats are expected to manifest as hail and damaging winds. However, as moisture and other atmospheric conditions align, the possibility of tornadoes becomes more likely. The severe thunderstorm setup is set to unfold over the Plains on Thursday and Friday.

On Thursday, several communities in three states are included in the heightened risk zone for severe weather. This zone encompasses Wichita, Kansas; Wichita Falls, Texas; and Oklahoma City. Moving to Friday, a wider area of the heartland is expected to face the risk of thunderstorms.

Forecasters anticipate a surge in showers and thunderstorms on Friday, across more than half a dozen states. FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar explains, "We are going to start to see that warm front start to push up into the upper Midwest." The Storm Prediction Center has identified parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas as being at increased risk. Minar warns that this region could see the possibility of a few tornadoes.

The highlighted risk zone on Friday includes communities such as Des Moines, Iowa; Kansas City, Missouri; and Tulsa, Oklahoma. Atmospheric conditions on Friday are expected to be more conducive to severe weather, with an increased likelihood of hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Forecasters anticipate that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) will issue either Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado watches to alert residents to the immediate risks during the upcoming event. A watch indicates the possibility of severe weather within a large region, while a warning means that severe weather has been spotted or detected by radar, calling for immediate safety precautions as the storm approaches.

April's tornadic activity has been above average, with a total of 164 reports this month, nearly 20 reports higher than the average. May typically marks the most active month for tornadoes, with historical data from the SPC showing an average of 275-300 formations. Unexpectedly, this year, the SPC has already received 341 reports of tornadoes, which is more than 10% above the average for this time.

Weather patterns in recent weeks have defied the traditional tornadic threats in the Plains. Meteorologist Jane Minar notes, "So you look into, say, Texas, portions of Oklahoma, even into parts of the Southeast, the Mississippi River region, but we've been seeing much more activity, you know, up across the Ohio Valley. Ohio leads the country with the number of tornadoes." However, this week's weather is set to shift the tornado threat back into Texas and Oklahoma.

It is worth noting that severe weather outbreaks are more common during La Niña events compared to El Niño or neutral episodes. As the week progresses, residents in the Plains are advised to stay alert and take necessary precautions to ensure their safety during potentially severe weather conditions.