In a surprising move, Rep. Mike Gallagher, the chairman of the House select committee on China and long considered a rising star within the Republican Party, has announced his departure from Congress on April 19, 2024. This decision will leave House Republicans with just a one-seat majority until a special election is held to fill his vacant seat.

Gallagher's announcement in February that he would not seek a fifth term came as a shock to many. His early departure means that House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, can only afford to lose one GOP lawmaker on any party-line vote until a special election is held to replace ex-Rep. Bill Johnson of Ohio in June.

It is expected that a special election to replace former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California's 20th Congressional District, scheduled for May, will likely result in a safe Republican victory, giving Johnson some breathing room. However, before that, on April 30, a special election will be held to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Brian Higgins, a Democrat from New York. It is predicted that Democrats will add to their tally, maintaining the House majority at just one seat.

To regain some flexibility, Republicans are banking on winning the June 11 special election to replace Johnson in Ohio's 6th Congressional District. This election will be the GOP's first opportunity to offset any potential losses and regain a stronger majority.

In a statement, Gallagher mentioned that his decision came after discussions with his family. He expressed confidence in Speaker Johnson's appointment of a new chair for the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party to carry out their important mission. Gallagher's office will continue to operate and provide constituent services until the end of the term.

Interestingly, Gallagher's departure from Congress occurred soon after he faced criticism from members in his own party for voting against the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, along with two other Republicans. This decision also sparked a potential primary challenge from Alex Bruesewitz, an ally of former President Donald Trump. Bruesewitz is reportedly being actively recruited to run for the now-open seat and is planning to announce his final decision the week of April 8.

Bruesewitz has garnered endorsements from prominent Republican figures such as Reps. Matt Gaetz, Anna Paulina Luna, Jim Banks, and Cory Mills. His entry into the race could add further excitement and competition to the upcoming special election to fill Gallagher's vacant seat.

As the countdown to the special elections begins, the outcome of these races will determine the future makeup of the House and provide crucial opportunities for both Republicans and Democrats to solidify their positions.