In a surprising turn of events, the threat posed by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia to oust Speaker Mike Johnson may inadvertently increase the likelihood of the House approving billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine in the coming weeks. Greene, a prominent GOP voice against US aid to Ukraine, had repeatedly warned that she would initiate a "motion to vacate" against Johnson if he allowed further aid to pass the House.

Recognizing the potential impact of this threat, Democrats have expressed a willingness to protect Johnson from such an ouster, particularly if it were to occur due to a vote on Ukraine aid. As a result, House Democrats now hold significant leverage over the GOP leader. They have a clear and simple request: bring the Ukraine aid bill up for a vote, and they will refrain from motioning to vacate.

The proposed vote could include the $95.3 billion national security supplemental passed by the Senate in February, which allocated $60 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel. Alternatively, individual votes on Ukraine and Israel aid are also possible, as Johnson has indicated his preference for such an approach.

Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia emphasized that bringing the bill for a vote was more important than securing Johnson's support for it. She stated, "I don't even care if he votes for the bill. I just want him to bring it." Spanberger indicated that if Johnson does bring it to the floor, she would motion to table any motion to vacate.

The circumstances surrounding this situation starkly contrast the events of October, when Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida moved to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. At the time, Democrats were incensed by McCarthy's announcement of an impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden. McCarthy's refusal to seek Democratic support and the absence of clear grievances against him made addressing the situation challenging.

Currently, House Republicans' impeachment inquiry appears to be faltering, and Johnson has relied on Democratic votes to pass recent spending bills. With the November election just seven months away when Congress reconvenes, the dynamics within the House are highly significant.

However, not all Democrats are inclined to protect Johnson. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York expressed her opposition to the Senate-passed national security supplemental, specifically due to the allocation for Israel aid. She indicated that she would not support Johnson, stating, "I am not inclined to vote for an individual for speaker who doesn't believe in women's rights, doesn't believe in bodily autonomy, who has supported overturning a presidential election."

Nevertheless, Democrats do not have to vote for Johnson; they just need to vote against Greene's motion to vacate by opting to table it. The number of Democrats opposing Greene's motion would need to outweigh the potential Republican support for it.

It remains to be seen how House Democrats will collectively approach this matter, as their decision is likely to play a crucial role. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries may declare it a vote of conscience, allowing individual members to make their own decisions. Additionally, Johnson's response to the situation is uncertain.

Republican Rep. Mike McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a proponent of Ukraine aid, shared on CBS that Johnson has committed to holding a vote on Ukraine aid "after Easter." With this information now public, Johnson can proceed with greater confidence, knowing that if he organizes a vote on Ukraine aid that satisfies Democrats, his position as Speaker is likely to remain secure, at least until November.