### Rare November Storm Threatens Gulf of Mexico

A rare November storm, poised to be named Hurricane Rafael, is currently making its way towards the Gulf of Mexico. Historically, Houston has never been struck by a storm in November since the commencement of record-keeping, making this an unusual situation. The previous latest storm to hit the area was Hurricane Jerry, a Category 1 storm, on October 15, 1991.

Hurricane season technically extends until November's end, making the existence of such a storm not wholly unexpected. However, tracking a hurricane that moves into the Gulf of Mexico in November is quite rare. The last time a November hurricane entered the Gulf was in 1985 when Hurricane Kate, a Category 3 storm, made landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm on November 21. This occurrence was nearly four decades ago.

As of now, Rafael is expected to achieve hurricane status within the next two days and could even escalate briefly to a major Category 3 storm due to the warm Caribbean waters and low wind shear. However, Gulf waters are cooler and wind shear is stronger, which should weaken the storm. Historically, fall cold fronts around mid-October prevent storms from reaching Houston, and luckily, another front is expected to move in on Tuesday. This front should stall near the coast, acting as a barrier to keep Rafael from heading directly towards Houston. However, if the front dissipates after Thursday, there might still be a slight risk.

Rafael’s path is still uncertain, but wind shear is likely to steer it eastward. Currently, the path of least resistance seems to target areas like Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Nonetheless, the European model presents an alternative track potentially leading the storm towards Mexico, contingent on whether the high-pressure system in the Atlantic loses its influence.

Forecasts indicate that this might not be the last storm in the Gulf this November. Following Rafael, another low-pressure system located east of Florida could impact the region as early as next week. Meteorologists are diligently monitoring these developments and will provide updates through various channels, including online, TV, and the KPRC 2 Storm Tracker app.