### Rafael Becomes Rare November Hurricane in Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Rafael made a significant impact as it struck southwestern Cuba on October 6 at 4:15 p.m. EST, landing approximately 40 miles southwest of Havana. It arrived as a powerful Category 3 hurricane, packing winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a central pressure of 956 mb. This marked the first time since Hurricane Michelle in 2001 that a major hurricane made landfall in Cuba during November.

As Rafael journeyed northwest, it passed about 30 miles west of Havana. Sustained winds of 44 mph, with gusts reaching up to 71 mph, were recorded at 3:50 p.m. Rafael's powerful winds caused widespread disruptions to Cuba's electrical grid, resulting in an island-wide blackout, just days after the grid had fully failed from October 18-22.

Rafael's rise to a major hurricane added to the tally of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which has now seen 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. The season's accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 153 is 31% higher than the average, which typically has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes with an ACE index of 117.

Rafael was downgraded to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds after spending two hours over western Cuba, which disrupted its inner core. Nonetheless, Rafael remains one of only six November hurricanes on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and one of only three Category 2 or higher storms, joining Hurricane Ida of 2009 and Hurricane Kate of 1985.

On November 7 at 10 a.m. EST, Rafael was located 200 miles west-northwest of Havana, moving west-northwest at 9 mph with top sustained winds of 100 mph and a central pressure of 971 mb. Heavy rain showers were reported in southwestern Florida, the Florida Keys, and parts of western Cuba. The Lower Florida Keys saw rainfall amounts between 2-5 inches, while Jaguey Grande, Cuba reported a 24-hour rainfall of 6.30 inches.

Satellite images on Thursday indicated that Rafael had lost its earlier impressive characterization. The once prominent eye was barely visible and the eyewall thunderstorms were losing symmetry and intensity.

Forecasts suggest that Rafael will follow a primarily westward track over the next three days, steering clear of large landmasses while traversing the warm waters of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. However, as Rafael moves west, it is expected to encounter cooler waters and an increasingly dry environment, leading to significant weakening by early next week. Model forecasts diverge on Rafael's longer-term path, with some predicting a west-southwesterly track toward Mexico and others a more northerly direction towards Louisiana. Both scenarios agree on substantial weakening, with no models predicting a U.S. hurricane landfall.

In addition, a disturbance over the Leeward Islands is forecasted to bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, and later to the southeastern Bahamas. However, development into a tropical depression or storm remains unlikely, with the National Hurricane Center giving it only a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.