Proxy War Unfolds as Iran Expands Influence in Sudan Amid Civil Unrest

https://icaro.icaromediagroup.com/system/images/photos/16088734/original/open-uri20240304-18-ijk5vu?1709580410
ICARO Media Group
Politics
04/03/2024 19h26

In a troubling development, Iran has emerged as a significant player in Sudan's ongoing civil unrest, sending military supplies to the Islamist military government. This move has caught the attention of very few, despite its potential for escalating tensions between Iran and the West in one of Africa's poorest nations.

The Sudanese Islamist government, which had previously negotiated with Russia for a military base on the Red Sea, has now opened its doors to Iranian naval vessels and allowed Iranian planes loaded with weapons to land in Port Sudan. This proximity to Yemen, where pro-Iranian Houthis control significant portions of the country and have disrupted international sea lanes, raises concerns of a wider conflict.

The civil war in Sudan takes on a unique dynamic as two national armies, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), fight against each other. The RSF, initially formed by Gen. Omar al-Bashir to defend his regime against potential coups, has grown in numbers rapidly under the leadership of Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as "Hemedti." With approximately 100,000 soldiers, the RSF is now at par with the SAF.

While the RSF lacks air power, it has managed to gain ground in the ongoing conflict, controlling about half of Sudan, including western and central regions. This poses a significant challenge to Gen. Abdul Fattah Burhan, the leader of the SAF and a disciple of al-Bashir, who has been hesitant to support the democratic revolution that began in 2019. This reluctance seemingly stems from protecting the military's extensive economic interests, which reportedly account for 80% of the country's economy.

Amidst this tumultuous backdrop, Iran's involvement has further complicated the situation. Recent reports suggest that Iran has been supplying its Mohajer-6 drones to the SAF, similar to those used by Russian forces in the Ukraine war. Videos on the internet also claim that the RSF has shot down an Iranian drone. Iran's support for the Islamist generals in Sudan is part of its broader campaign to expand its influence in Africa, as evidenced by its president's visits to several African nations last year.

The Iranian regime aims to bolster trade with Africa and counter the perceived decline of Western influence, particularly American influence, on the continent. Iran's activities also extend beyond military support, with cultural, academic, and religious networks serving as vehicles for its outreach. This includes initiatives such as building schools and medical clinics, but also backing Shia Muslim rebels in West African countries.

As the conflict in Sudan wages on, there is no clear end in sight. Iran's involvement in supporting the Islamist generals raises questions about potential payback if they emerge victorious, including access to the Red Sea. Conversely, if the SAF faces defeat, concerns arise about whether Iran's Revolutionary Guard or Islamist volunteers from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen may come to their aid.

While the proxy war between Iran and the West unfolds in Sudan, it remains unclear how the international community will respond to prevent further escalation and ensure a stable future for the country. The situation highlights the need for heightened attention to Iran's growing presence in Africa and its potential repercussions on regional stability.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

Related