Residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast are keeping a close eye on the potential development of a tropical system in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf in the upcoming week. While the 2024 hurricane season has been quieter than expected overall, recent events such as Hurricane Francine making landfall as a Category 2 storm on the Gulf Coast and severe flooding in North Carolina serve as reminders of the unpredictability of tropical weather systems.

Meteorologists are monitoring the formation of a Central American Gyre (CAG), a large area of low pressure common during this time of the year, which is expected to lead to the organization of a tropical storm. Models indicate a high likelihood of a CAG forming next week, setting the stage for potential tropical storm development. However, pinpointing the exact timing and location of the storm's formation within the CAG remains challenging, especially with limited observational data available currently.

With convection intensifying in the southern and western Caribbean, there is a tentative model consensus that a tropical depression may form near the Yucatan peninsula by Tuesday or Wednesday. One complicating factor is the possibility of another tropical system developing in the Eastern Pacific before the Caribbean disturbance, potentially influencing the track of the proto-storm. It's crucial to monitor the steering winds aloft and upper-level wind patterns, as they play a significant role in guiding the storm's trajectory and intensity.