OPEC+ Expected to Extend Output Cuts as Oil Prices Slip, U.S. Crude Records Worst Month of the Year

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31/05/2024 22h01

Title: OPEC+ Expected to Extend Output Cuts as Oil Prices Slip, U.S. Crude Records Worst Month of the Year

In an anticipated move, OPEC+ members are set to review the current voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, with analysts predicting that the group will opt to maintain these reductions. The decision comes as oil prices continue to decline, with U.S. crude experiencing its worst month of the year.

During the month of May, U.S. oil witnessed a 6% decrease, marking its poorest performance since November. Global benchmark Brent also fell by 7.1% this month, reflecting a downward trend in the oil market. This decline in prices sets the stage for an important OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this weekend, during which the cartel will evaluate its production levels.

The current energy prices reveal further insights into the market's situation. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) July contract stands at $77.99 per barrel, down 92 cents, or 1.18%. However, year to date, U.S. crude oil has experienced a gain of 7.4%. Likewise, the Brent July contract has been observed at $81.62 per barrel, down 24 cents, or 0.29%. Year to date, the global benchmark has shown an increase of 5.9%.

The consensus among three OPEC+ delegates inform CNBC that the voluntary output cuts are likely to be extended. Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, stated, "We see no appetite at this juncture to add more barrels to the market and trigger another price move to the downside." This sentiment emphasizes the cautious approach taken by OPEC+ in order to maintain a stable market.

Factors contributing to the lackluster oil demand include weak gasoline demand in the U.S., with the average daily demand for fuel being 1.4% lower in the run-up to Memorial Day compared to the previous year. Additionally, a warm winter that reduced heating oil demand and indications from the Federal Reserve regarding higher interest rates have dampened hopes for an oil demand rebound in the second half of the year, according to JPMorgan analysts.

Furthermore, Chinese refiners have experienced reduced output, and European refiners have been slow to resume operations following spring maintenance. These factors have further weighed on oil demand, as indicated by the investment bank. Yet, there are some initial signs of improvement in demand readings observed in April.

As the OPEC+ meeting approaches, the decision to extend output cuts is expected to provide support to oil prices, potentially averting a further downward spiral. Market analysts and investors will be closely monitoring the outcome of the meeting to ascertain its impact on the energy market and future oil prices.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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